需求不确定环境下装配式建筑预制构件供应链风险传导机制研究

Research on Risk Transmission Mechanism of Prefabricated Component Supply Chain under Uncertain Demand Environment

在装配式建筑预制构件需求不确定的环境下,考虑预制构件孔洞预留等个性化需求问题衍生出的无库存情况,利用风险传导系数、Stackelberg博弈等对装配式建筑的预制构件供应链风险传导机制展开研究。研究发现:从预制构件供应链下游至上游,各主体在需求风险传导过程中起风险逐级放大的作用,且总承包商由于利润多元化往往受风险冲击较小;预制构件生产成本的减少、利润分配系数的升高、价格敏感系数的降低等情况对于需求风险波动有较明显的抑制作用;当利润分配比率属于[0.50,0.75]时,需求风险下的定价策略才能得以实现。

In the environment of uncertain demand for prefabricated components of prefabricated buildings,considering the non-stock situation derived from personalized demand problems such as prefabricated component hole reservation,the risk transmission mechanism of prefabricated component supply chain of prefabricated buildings is studied by using risk transmission coefficient and Stackelberg game.It is found that from the downstream to the upstream of the prefabricated component supply chain,each subject plays a risk-amplifying role in the process of demand risk transmission,and the general contractor is often less affected by risk due to profit diversification;the reduction of production cost of prefabricated components,the increase of profit distribution coefficient and the reduction of price sensitivity coefficient have obvious inhibitory effect on demand risk fluctuation.When the profit distribution ratio belongs to the interval[0.50,0.75],the pricing strategy under demand risk can be realized.