2010—2021年广元市丙型肝炎流行病学特征分析

Epidemiology chracteristics of hepatitis C in Guangyuan City from 2010 to 2021

目的了解掌握广元市丙型肝炎疫情发病总体趋势及规律,指导防治工作。方法收集广元市疾病预防控制中心2010—2021年丙型肝炎疫情档案资料,应用WPS 2022和R 4.2.2软件对数据进行描述性分析。运用时间序列ARIMA模型开展季节性分析,运用Mann-Kendall趋势检验开展动态趋势变化,以P<0.05为差异有统计学意义。结果2010—2021年广元市丙型肝炎报告发病率由2010年的3.77/10万上升到2021年的7.46/10万,发病率有逐年上升趋势(Z=3.360,P=0.001),男女性别比为1.30:1,男女发病率差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=27.642,P<0.001);丙型肝炎病例主要在40~69岁(66.30%),且发病率有上升的趋势(Z=3.634,P=0.0002),农民、家务及待业、离退人员占病例报告总数的82.72%,全年都有病例报告,但无季节性特征。结论广元市丙型肝炎病例呈散在,无明显季节性,但发病呈上升趋势。为做好丙型肝炎防控,应建立丙型肝炎监测与诊疗体系,及时介入病人治疗,强化重点地区、重点人群的健康宣传,以有效防止丙型肝炎的传播。

Objective To understand the general trend and regularity of hepatitis C epidemic situation in Guangyuan City,and to guide the prevention and control work.Methods The data of the hepatitis C epidemic from the Guangyuan City Center for Disease Control and Prevention from 2010 to 2021 were collected and analyzed by using WPS 2022 and R4.2.2 software.The time series Arima model was used for seasonal analysis,and the Mann-kendall trend test was used for dynamic trend change.The differences P<0.05 was considered to be statistically significant.Results From 2010 to 2010,the reported incidence rate of hepatitis C in Guangyuan City increased from 3.77/105 in 2010 to 7.46/105 in 2021.The incidence rate of hepatitis C increased year by year(Z=3.360,P=0.001),the sex ratio between men and women was 1.30∶1,and the diffference of morbidity between men and women was statistically significant(χ^(2)=27.642,P<0.001).The incidence of hepatitis C was mainly between 40~69 years old(66.30%),and the incidence of hepatitis C was increasing(Z=3.634,P=0.0002),82.72%of the total cases were from farmers,family workers,unemployed and retired persons.All the cases were reported throughout the year,but there was no seasonal feature.Conclusions The cases of hepatitis C in Guangyuan are sporadic and non-seasonal,but the incidence is on the rise.In order to prevent and control hepatitis C,it is necessary to establish a system of monitoring,diagnosis and treatment of hepatitis C,intervene patients in time,and strengthen health propaganda in key areas and population,so that to prevent the spread of hepatitis C effectively.