摘要
传染病代际间隔τ对于探究病毒传播规律具有重要的理论与实用价值,而通常其概率分布函数是未知的。因此,尝试利用最大熵方法推断代际间隔分布函数的最概然形式,详细分析了全球20个国家4986个新型冠状病毒病例信息,在充分考虑样本多样性的基础上估计了该病毒代际间隔的总体均值和方差,然后基于此方法推定了全球新型冠状病毒代际间隔分布函数并以此计算了中国的基本再生数。研究结论有助于进一步客观地分析病毒传播特征,为制定常态化疫情防控对策和相关领域研究提供重要的参考价值。
The intergenerationalτhas important theoretical and practical value to explore the law of virus transmission,but the probability distribution function is unknown.Therefore,this paper tries to infer the most probable form of the intergenerational interval distribution function by using the maximum entropy method,and analyzes the information of 4986 cases of novel coronavirus from 20 countries in the world in detail,and estimates the mean and variance of the intergenerational interval of the virus on the basis of fully considering the diversity of samples.Then,based on this method,the global intergenerational interval distribution function of novel coronavirus was deduced and the basic reproduction number of China is calculated.The conclusion of this study is helpful for further objective analysis of the transmission characteristics of the virus,and provides important reference value for the formulation of regular epidemic prevention and control countermeasures and related research.
作者
高远东
李华龙
王小华
陈端兵
梁义娟
温涛
周涛
陶勇
GAO Yuandong;LI Hualong;WANG Xiaohua;CHEN Duanbing;LIANG Yijuan;WEN Tao;ZHOU Tao;TAO Yong(College of Economics and Management,Southwest University,Chongqing 400715,China;Big Data Research Center,University of Electronic Science and Technology of China,Chengdu 611731,China)
出处
《复杂系统与复杂性科学》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第2期20-28,37,共10页
Complex Systems and Complexity Science
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目(19AJY015)
国家自然科学基金面上项目(61673085)。
关键词
新型冠状病毒
最大熵原理
代际间隔
分布函数
阶矩信息
COVID-19
maximum entropy method
generation interval
distribution function
moment information
