基于COVID 19传播特性的传染病模型的构建与研究

Construction and Research of Infectious Disease Model Based on COVID 19 Transmission Characteristics

为了更好地揭示新冠肺炎(COVID 19)的传播机理,通过分析新冠病毒(2019 nCoV)的传播特性,考虑隐性潜伏者的自愈以及潜伏者的提前隔离,引入“入院隔离状态”,“隐性治愈状态”,考虑防控强度的变化,引入“发病状态”,提出了SEAIHR动力学模型。利用真实疫情数据,考虑不同阶段参数的变化,进行了多模型对比试验。实验结果表明,SEAIHR模型拟合和预测精度有明显提升,较经典模型在疫情前中期降低了34.4%~72.8%拟合误差,为疫情防控提供了参考与指导。

In order to better reveal the transmission mechanism of COVID 19,this paper proposes the SEAIHR dynamic model by analyzing the transmission characteristics of COVID 19,considering the self-healing of the hidden lurks and the early isolation of the lurks,introducing“h hospitalization isolation”,“recessive cure”,considering the change of prevention and control intensity,and introducing“morbidity status”.Using the real epidemic data and considering the changes of parameters in different stages,a multi model comparative test was conducted.The experimental results showed that the fitting and prediction accuracy of the SEAIHR model was significantly improved,and the fitting error was 34.4%~72.8%lower than that of the classical model in the early and middle stages of the epidemic,providing reference and guidance for epidemic prevention and control.