中国城市韧性发展水平测度、差异分解与动态演变及障碍因子识别

Measurement,Differences Decomposition,Dynamic Evolution and Obstacle Factor Identification of Urban Resilience Development Level in China

文章构建了城市韧性指标体系,运用2011—2019年240个地级及以上城市的数据,测度了城市韧性水平,并分析其地区差异、动态演变及主要障碍因子。研究发现:城市韧性水平逐渐提高,但中低韧性水平的城市占比较高;城市生态韧性和基础设施韧性相对较高,经济韧性、基础设施韧性和社会韧性呈上升趋势,生态韧性则呈下降趋势;城市韧性水平的总体差异呈小幅波浪式变化,总体差异主要来源于地区间差异,东、中、西部地区城市韧性的组内变化呈地区异质性;城市韧性水平分布曲线主峰高度呈“M”型变动,且没有显著极化现象,东、中、西部地区城市韧性水平动态演进存在差异;人力资本、社会文化、交通轨道、财政收入和对外开放是影响城市韧性水平提升的主要障碍因子。

This paper constructs an urban resilience index system,and uses the data of 240 cities at prefecture level and above from 2011 to 2019 to measure urban resilience level and analyze its regional differences,dynamic evolution and main obstacle factors.The findings go as the following:The level of urban resilience has gradually increased,but the proportion of cities with medium and low resilience levels is higher.Urban ecological resilience and infrastructure resilience are relatively higher;economic resilience,infrastructure resilience and social resilience are on the rise,while ecological resilience is on the decline.The overall difference of urban resilience level fluctuates slightly,and the overall difference mainly comes from inter-regional differences.The intra-group changes of urban resilience in eastern,central and western regions show regional heterogeneity.The height of the main peak of the distribution curve of urban resilience level shows a M-shaped trend,and there is no significant polarization phenomenon.There are differences in the dynamic evolution of urban resilience in eastern,central and western regions.Human capital,social culture,transportation,fiscal revenue and opening to the outside world are the main obstacles to the improvement of urban resilience level.