邮轮建造物资仓储风险预警研究

Early warning of warehousing risk for cruise ship construction projec

仓储是邮轮物资物流集配的关键环节,为保证邮轮建造物资物流集配高效运行,应将仓储风险管理模式从事后应对转变为事前预防。基于邮轮物资仓储风险,构建了包含4个一级指标及12个二级指标的风险预警指标体系;采用多目标线性加权函数计算综合风险指数,在GM(1,1)幂理论基础上引入傅立叶级数和模糊马尔可夫链建立预警模型;确定预警阈值,明确预警级别,并输出相应的预警信号。以邮轮建造的舾装物资仓储为例,将该预警模型与GM(1,1)、GM(1,1)幂模型进行对比。结果表明,文中模型误差最小,在-0.0136~0.0161之间,且预测的稳定性最佳,与实际风险状况基本吻合。可见该风险预警模型适用性较好。

The warehousing Risk index system is built.The index system is composed of 4 first level indexes and 12 second level indexes.The compound risk index is calculated with a multi-objective linear weighting function.The early warning model is built based on GM(1,1)power model.Fourier series and fuzzy Markov chain is introduced into the model.The levels of warning and corresponding thresholds are defined.One particular case of cruise construction project is examined with the model.The result is compared to those from ordinary GM(1,1)model and GM(1,1)power model.The accuracy achieved by the developed model is within-0.0136 and 0.0161,better than the latter two models do.The consistency is better,too.