山东省经济增长与能源碳排放脱钩时空演变趋势——基于产业结构变动视角

Temporal and Spatial Trends of Decoupling of Economic Growth and Energy Carbon Emissions in Shandong Province:Based on the Perspective of Industrial Structure Change

本文以山东省2009-2020年省、市级数据为依据,对产业结构变动下碳排放量进行测度,并结合Tapio脱钩模型与Geoda软件,审视山东省12年间脱钩水平、碳强度的时空格局演变趋势。结果表明:2009-2014年期间,山东省总体脱钩水平较差,脱钩显著区域集中在鲁中、胶东地区,且处于0.0~0.2之间的弱脱钩状态,碳强度处于1.0~2.5之间,空间格局较为分散。2015~2020年期间,伴随2015年产业结构由“二三一”优化升级为“三二一”模式,脱钩水平较前期有所改善,鲁中、胶东地区出现强脱钩现象且碳强度处于1.0以下,鲁北、鲁南地区除滨州和临沂外均处于1.0~1.5之间,脱钩水平、碳强度出现空间集聚态势。为保证强脱钩的持续推进,山东省应在进一步发展新旧动能转换技术视角下高质量发展,推进宏观产业结构调整及产业结构优化升级的双重进步,实现能源结构多元化,提高能源利用率,降低碳排放量。

Based on the provincial and municipal panel data of Shandong Province from 2009 to 2020,this paper measures the carbon emissions under the change of industrial structure,and examines the spatio-temporal evolution trend of decoupling level and carbon intensity in Shandong Province in 12 years by combining tapio decoupling model and Geoda software.During 2009-2014,the overall decoupling level of Shandong Province was poor.The significant regions of decoupling were concentrated in central Shandong and Jiaodong,and were in a weak decoupling state between 0.0 and 0.2.The carbon intensity was between 1.0 and 2.5,and the spatial pattern was relatively dispersed.During 2015-2020:With the upgrading of the industrial structure from"two three one"to"three two one"model in 2015,the decoupling level has improved compared with the previous period.Strong decoupling has occurred in central Shandong and Jiaodong,and the carbon intensity is below 1.0.In northern Shandong and southern Shandong,except Binzhou and Linyi,the decoupling level and carbon intensity are both between 1.0 and 1.5.The decoupling level and carbon intensity are in a spatial agglomeration situation.In order to ensure the promotion of strong decoupling,Shandong Province should further develop highquality development from the perspective of new and old kinetic energy conversion technology,promote the dual progress of macro industrial structure adjustment and industrial structure optimization and upgrading,realize the diversification of energy structure,improve energy utilization and reduce carbon emissions.