基于信息量-逻辑回归模型的江西省婺源县地质灾害易发性评价

Evaluation of Geological Disaster Susceptibility Based on Information-Logistic Regression Model in the Wuyuan County,Jiangxi Province

江西省婺源县位于中低山、丘陵地区,是省内地质灾害重点防治区之一,近年来滑坡、崩塌等地质灾害活动不断加剧,给当地居民财产及人身安全造成重大威胁。基于婺源县野外调查资料及最新的地质灾害数据,选取坡度、高程变异系数、斜坡结构、地貌类型、工程岩组、归一化植被指数(NDVI)、道路缓冲区、断层缓冲区8个评价因子,采用信息量-逻辑回归模型对研究区进行地质灾害易发性评价及分区。结果表明:研究区地质灾害高易发区呈线状分布且多位于道路100 m范围内;中易发区呈带状分布且多位于断层300 m范围内;低易发区主要分布在断裂不发育,人类工程活动少,植被覆盖较多且岩层较坚硬的低山丘陵区域。通过对评价结果进行合理性检验及精度检验,表明分区结果与实际情况吻合度较好,评价结果精度较高,可为婺源县后期的地质灾害防治工作提供参考。

The Wuyuan county,located in the area of middle and low mountains and hills,is one of the key prevention and control areas for geological disasters in Jiangxi province.In recent years,the continuous intensification of geological disasters(such as landslide and collapse,etc.)has posed a major threat to the property and personal safety of local residents.Based on the field survey data in the study area and the latest geological disaster data,8 evaluation factors including slope,elevation variation coefficient,slope structure,landform type,engineering rock formation,normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI),road buffer zone,and fault buffer zone have been selected to evaluate and partition the susceptibility of geological disasters in the study area according to the information-logistic regression model.The results show that the high-prone areas of geological disasters are linearly distributed and mostly located within 100 m of roads;the medium-prone areas are zonal and mostly located within 300 m of faults.The low-prone areas are mainly distributed in these low hilly areas without faults,less human engineering activities,and well developed vegetation with more and harder rock formations.Through the rationality test and accuracy test of the evaluation results,the results of the subregions are in good agreement with the actual situation,and the accuracy of the evaluation results is high,which can provide a reference for the later geological disaster prevention in the Wuyuan county.