中国对“一带一路”国家直接投资与东道国出口产品质量

China’s Direct Investment in“Belt and Road Initiative”Countries and the Quality of Products Exported by the Host Country

基于2008—2020年CEPII-BACI数据库和《中国对外直接投资统计公报》,采用固定效应模型探究中国对“一带一路”国家直接投资对东道国制造业出口产品质量的影响及作用机制。结果表明:(1)中国对外直接投资会显著促进“一带一路”国家制造业出口产品质量升级,在进行了内生性问题处理等稳健性检验后这一结论依然成立,且该促进作用在中低技术产品、劳动密集型产品和同质化产品中更为显著。(2)中国对外直接投资通过提升“一带一路”国家产业结构和创新水平而促进其出口产品质量升级,同时“一带一路”国家的金融发展、制度质量和确定性程度会加强该促进作用。(3)进一步研究发现,较其他国家从“一带一路”国家进口产品的质量而言,中国对“一带一路”国家直接投资更能显著提高中国从其进口产品的质量,造成这种现象的原因是中国对“一带一路”国家直接投资增加了中国与“一带一路”国家之间的贸易互补性。

Based on CEPII-BACI database and Statistical Bulletin of China’s Foreign Direct Investment from 2008 to 2020,this paper uses a fixed-effect model to explore the influence and mechanism of China’s direct investment in“Belt and Road Initiative”countries on the quality of manufacturing exports of“Belt and Road Initiative”countries.There are following findings:(1)China’s foreign direct investment will significantly promote the quality upgrading of manufacturing exports of“Belt and Road Initiative”countries.After the robustness test such as endogenous problem handling,this conclusion is still valid,and the promoting effect is more significant in low-and medium-tech products,labor-intensive products and homogenized products;(2)China’s foreign direct investment promotes the upgrading of the quality of its export products by upgrading the industrial structure and innovation level of“Belt and Road Initiative”countries.At the same time,the financial development,institutional quality and certainty of“Belt and Road Initiative”countries will strengthen this promoting role;(3)Further study shows that China’s direct investment in“Belt and Road Initiative”countries can significantly improve the quality of China’s imports from“Belt and Road Initiative”countries than the quality of products imported by other countries from“Belt and Road Initiative”countries.And the reason for this phenomenon is that China’s direct investment in“Belt and Road Initiative”countries increases the trade complementarity between China and it.