共同富裕视角下江苏省县级财政收入增长不平衡研究

Research on the Imbalance of County‑Level Fiscal Revenue Growth in Jiangsu Province from the Perspective of Common Prosperity

基于共同富裕视角,构建基于单片滑动均值算子的灰色斜率关联度模型,以昆山市作为参照标准,计算江苏省全部县市一般公共预算收入、人均一般公共预算收入、多指标面板数据灰色斜率关联度,进而测算苏南、苏中、苏北三个区域一般公共预算收入增长与相关经济指标的关联程度,分析在波动冲击下江苏省县级财政收入增长不平衡的原因。研究发现,苏南、苏中、苏北区域财政一般公共预算收入抗风险的能力依次递减,人均一般公共预算收入增长不平衡、分化明显。单片滑动均值算子的灰色斜率关联度模型的计算结果显示,苏南区域一般公共预算收入增长与增值税、第二产业生产总值、第三产业生产总值增长灰色斜率关联程度高,各产业层面协同性较好,而苏中、苏北区域相对较弱。

Based on the perspective of common prosperity,this paper constructs a grey slope correlation model based on the single sliding mean operator.Taking Kunshan City as the reference standard,it calculates the grey slope correlation degree of general public budget income,per capita general public budget income and multi-index panel data of all counties and cities in Jiangsu Province,and then calculates the correlation degree between the growth of general public budget income and related economic indicators in the three regions of southern Ji-angsu,central Jiangsu and northern Jiangsu,and analyzes the reasons for the unbalanced growth of county-level fiscal revenue in Jiangsu Province under the impact of fluctuations.The study has found that the ability of gen-eral public budget revenue to resist risks in southern Jiangsu,central Jiangsu and northern Jiangsu is decreasing in turn,and the growth of per capita general public budget revenue is uneven and differentiated.The calculation results of the gray slope correlation model based on a single sliding mean operator show a high level of correla-tion between the general public budget revenue growth in southern Jiangsu region and the growth of value-added tax,total output value of the secondary industry,and total output value of the tertiary industry.There is good synergy at the industry level in southern Jiangsu whereas central and northern Jiangsu regions exhibit relatively weaker correlations.