我国与美国“猪周期”动态关系分析

Analyzing the Dynamic Relations Between the Pork Cycles of the U.S.and China

对我国与美国的猪肉价格月度时间序列数据进行了季节调整和滤波分析,分解出两国猪肉周期价格。利用结构向量自回归模型估计了我国与美国“猪周期”相互冲击的滞后效应和当期效应。研究发现,两国“猪周期”呈负相关关系。我国“猪周期”持续时间长,波动幅度大,美国“猪周期”则相反。美国“猪周期”能够缓解我国“猪周期”波动,中美双边猪肉贸易量主要决定于我国“猪周期”。

Chinese pork security depended on the interrelations between the pork cycles of its own and those of trade partners.This paper decomposed the U.S.and China pork cycles by using the Tramo/Seats and Hodrick-Prescott Filtration methods,and compared the dynamic features of the pork cycles of the two nations.It also applied a Structural Vector Autoregressions(SVAR)model to estimate the impulse responses between U.S.and Chinese pork cycles.The empirical results showed that each pork cycle of China lasted longer and vibrates greater than that of the U.S.The pork cycle of the U.S.and China were negatively correlated,and the U.S.pork cycle could help ease fluctuations of Chinese pork cycle.It was Chinese pork cycle that determined the bilateral pork trade between the two countries.The U.S.pork price negatively contributes to the pork price of China.On the contrary,Chinese pork price positively contributed to the pork price of the United States of America.Chinese pork industry needed to strengthen its cooperation with the U.S.pork industry even when the world geopolitical situation get worse.