商品市场分割、线下销售与电子商务发展——基于动态面板系统GMM分析

Commodity Market Segmentation,Offline Sales and E-commerce Development:GMM Analysis Based on Dynamic Panel System

近年来,中国电子商务产业发展的越来越快,已经成为世界上最大规模的电子商务市场。基于2014-2020年中国31个省市自治区的面板数据,采用静态与动态模型相互对照的回归方法研究商品市场分割对电子商务发展的影响。结果表明:商品市场分割对电子商务发展起着倒U型的作用,经过一系列稳健性检验后,结论依然成立;在东中西部分地区检验中发现,中部商品市场分割的影响最大;机制检验表明,商品市场分割通过抑制线下销售促进电子商务发展。研究结果提供了一种从商品市场分割的视角解释中国电子商务快速扩张的原因,为发展贸易往来,推动电子商务发展做出一些理论支撑。

In recent years,China’s e-commerce industry has developed faster and faster,becoming the largest e-commerce market in the world.Based on panel data from 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions in China from 2014 to 2020,the impact of commodity market segmentation on e-commerce development is studied using a regression method that compares static and dynamic models.The results show that commodity market segmentation plays an inverted U-shaped role in the development of e-commerce,and after a series of robustness tests,the conclusion is still valid;In the testing of parts of the eastern,central,and western regions,it is found that the central commodity market segmentation has the greatest impact;Mechanism testing shows that commodity market segmentation promotes e-commerce development by suppressing offline sales.The research results provide a way to explain the reasons for the rapid expansion of China’s e-commerce from the perspective of commodity market segmentation,and provide some theoretical support for the development of trade and e-commerce development.