多生育能否保障老年人福利

Can Having More Children Guarantee the Welfare of Elderly People?

在低生育背景下,释放生育潜能关系中华民族的未来和千家万户的幸福,而提高生育率的关键是在不降低其他主体福利的条件下保障生育主体福利。文章基于代际支持视角,建立了一个多主体的动态优化模型,回答了多生育对当前老年人福利和生育主体老年时候福利的影响。模拟研究发现,相比基准情景,在新生婴儿进入劳动市场之前,多生育会降低当前老年人的福利水平。但是随着当前新生婴儿开始工作,多生育情景下未来老年人的福利会得到较好提升。对此,文章提出了代际帕累托改进路径——调整待遇机制,兼顾当前和未来老年人福利。最后,文章还就微观家庭层面“多子不多福”的现实困境进行了探讨,建议对多生育主体给予生育政策支持和养老政策倾斜,优化生育保障,解除生育、养育和养老的后顾之忧。

In the context of low fertility rates,unleashing the fertility potential is related to the future of the Chinese nation and the happiness of millions of households.The key to increasing the fertility rate is to ensure the welfare of the fertility subject without reducing the welfare of other entities.Based on the intergenerational support perspective,the article develops a multi-subject dynamic optimization model to answer the impact of multiple fertility on the welfare of elderly people.The simulation study finds that,compared to the baseline scenario,having more children reduces the welfare of the current elderly people before newborn infants grow old enough to enter the labor market.However,as the current new-born infants grow old enough to work,the welfare of the future elderly people in the multi-birth scenario is better enhanced.In this regard,the article proposes an intergenerational Pareto improvement path-adjusting treatment mechanism to balance the welfare for current and future elderly people.Finally,the article also discusses the real-life dilemma of“having more children but not having more welfare”at the micro-family level,suggesting that fertility policy support and old-age policy inclination should be given to subjects with multiple births,to optimize fertility protection and relieve the worries of fertility,parenting and old-age.