基于主成分分析法的南疆塔里木河流域水库除险加固排序研究

Study on Reinforcement Sequence of Reservoirs in Tarim River Basin in Southern Xinjiang Based on Principal Component Analysis

水库除险加固排序研究对南疆塔里木河流域水库安全管理具有重要意义.本文基于南疆塔里木河流域水库安全风险高、监测资料匮乏、政治敏感度高的实际情况,通过事故树法计算出溃坝概率,并将溃坝概率与其余初始指标代入主成分分析法进行计算.这些指标综合考虑了溃坝损失、溃坝概率与水库效益三方面因素.通过对南疆塔里木河流域59座水库的应用实例研究,说明了基于主成分分析法的水库除险加固排序具有可行性与合理性,对于南疆塔里木河流域水库的安全管理具有一定的应用价值.

The study of reservoir reinforcement sequence is of great significance to reservoir safety management of Tarim River basin in southern Xinjiang.Based on the actual situation of high safety risk,lack of monitoring data and high political sensitivity of reservoirs in Tarim River basin in southern Xinjiang,the probability of dam failure is calculated by accident tree method,and the probability and other initial indicators are brought into the principal component analysis method for calculation.These indexes comprehensively consider the loss of dam break,probability of dam break and reservoir benefit.Through the case study on the application of 59 reservoirs in the Tarim River Basin in southern Xinjiang,it is shown that the ranking of reservoir reinforcement based on principal component analysis is feasible and reasonable,and has certain application value for the safety management of reservoirs in the Tarim River Basin in southern Xinjiang.