不确定性、信念偏差与不当行为:基于助推的实验证据

Uncertainty,Belief Bias and Misbehavior:Experimental Evidence from Nudging

在不确定性情境下信念偏差会加剧不当行为,本文以对善款池资产的转移作为不当行为的研究背景,探究不确定性变化对不当行为的影响,并分析抑制不当行为的助推方法及其作用机制。本文使用风险与模糊刻画两类不确定性,并提出事前选择、后果可查看两种助推方法,通过两者单独或结合使用来探究抑制不当行为的有效方式。分析结果表明,不确定性的增加会加剧信念偏差,进而导致不当行为增加;两种助推能削弱信念偏差的作用,且单独使用时能有效减少不当行为;而综合使用两种助推时的叠加抑制效果并不比单独使用更好,这是因为此时部分被试的自利本质暴露,他们会选择性地参考对自身有利的助推信息做决策。因此,使用助推应选择恰当的模式,以达到对不当行为的最佳抑制效果。

Since belief bias exacerbates misbehavior in situations of uncertainty,this paper explores the influence of uncertainty change on misbehavior and analyzes the nudging methods for suppressing it,as well as their mechanisms in the context of taking from charity.The paper characterizes uncertainty with risk and ambiguity,proposing two nudging methods called“ex ante choice”and“consequence visibility”respectively,and uses them separately and in combination to explore effective methods for deterring misbehavior.The results indicate that an increase in uncertainty aggravates belief bias,leading to more misbehavior;the two nudging methods can weaken the effect of belief bias and cause misbehavior to decrease when applied separately.However,when combined,the additive inhibition effect of the nudging methods is found to be no better than that when applied separately.This is due to the exposed self-interest nature of certain subjects,which makes them selectively refer to self-serving nudging information for decision making.Therefore,in order to inhibit misbehavior more effectively,the appropriate nudging method should be chosen carefully.