中国和印度经济增长的人口条件比较——基于“人口规模巨大的现代化”视角的分析

A Comparative Study on Population Change and Economic Growth between China and India:The Perspective of the Modernization of a Huge Population

从中国“人口规模巨大的现代化”的发展需要出发,聚焦与经济增长相关的人口条件,对同为人口规模巨大的发展中国家的中国和印度进行比较。研究结果显示,印度目前在发展水平上相当于20世纪90年代后期的中国,与中国在同一经济发展水平起点上比较时,其并没有显现出相应程度高于中国、相应时段长于中国的人口红利窗口;由于劳动年龄人口劳动参与率大幅低于中国,印度劳动力规模在21世纪前半叶都不会超过中国,中国可凭借较高的劳动参与率继续保持世界第一劳动力大国的地位;中国在人力资本存量以及人口城市化进程上的比较优势极为明显。中国进入人口与经济总量“双第二”的阶段后,在推进人口规模巨大的现代化时,尤其要把人力资本存量优势等,转化为劳动生产率及劳动参与率的优势。

In the context of the modernization within China's vast population,this paper compares the conditions of populations as they relate to economic growth in both China and India.These two nations are developing countries notable for their huge populations.The results show that the current development level in India is equivalent to that of China in the late 1990s.When compared from a similar start economic level,India has not yet demonstrated a higher or longer demographic dividend than China.Due to a significantly lower labor force participation rate in the working-age population,the size of the Indian labor force will not surpass that of China in the first half of the 21st century,enabling China to maintain its position as having the world's largest labor force.China has huge advantages in terms of human capital stock and the population urbanization.After entering the phase of“double second”in population and economic size,China,in particular,needs to transform its huge advantages in human capital into labor productivity and increased labor participation.