新疆某县级医院次均住院费用的灰色关联分析及趋势预测

Grey Correlation Analysis and Trend Prediction of Average Inpatient Cost in a County Hospital in Xinjiang

目的 通过分析新疆某县级公立医院次均住院费用的主要影响因素和结构变化及预测未来增长趋势,为公立医院合理控制住院费用、优化住院费用的结构等相关政策提供参考。方法 利用灰色关联分析和灰色预测法GM(1,1)预测模型分析2012年1月1日-2021年12月31日新疆某县级公立医院228 627例患者的次均住院费用各相关因素影响程度及未来发展趋势。结果 2012-2021年次均住院费用主要的影响因素关联程度最高的为材料费(0.94)、检查费(0.92)、药费(0.91),关联度最小的为护理费(0.76)、其他费用(0.83)、治疗费(0.88)。基于灰色GM(1,1)预测模型2022-2026年次均住院费用和次均药费呈现逐年升高,药占比逐渐下降。结论 2012-2021年医院次均住院费用增长快、未能得到有效控制。药品零加成政策效果显著,建议进一步提高药品控制质量。未来医院次均住院费用和次均药费增长速度均有增长,控制存在难度,建议多元化手段控制次均住院费用。

Objectives To analyze the main influencing factors and structural changes of per capita inpatient cost in a county public hospital in Xinjiang and forecast the future growth trend,so as to provide reference for public hospitals to reasonably control inpatient cost,optimize the structure of inpatient cost and other related policies.Methods Grey correlation analysis and grey prediction method GM(1,1)prediction model were used to analyze the influence degree and future development trend of each related factor of average inpatient cost of 228627 patients in a county public hospital in Xinjiang from January 1st,2012 to December 31st,2021.Results From 2012 to 2021,the main influencing factors of average hospitalization cost were material cost(0.94),examination cost(0.92)and drug cost(0.91)with the highest correlation degree,while nursing cost(0.76),other cost(0.83)and treatment cost(0.88)with the least correlation degree.Based on the grey GM(1,1)prediction model,average hospitalization cost and average drug cost increased year by year from 2022 to 2026,while the proportion of drugs decreased gradually.Conclusions From 2012 to 2021,the average inpatient cost increased rapidly and could not be controlled effectively.It was suggested to further improve the quality of drug control.In the future,the average inpatient cost and the average drug cost would increase,so it was difficult to control.It is suggested to control the average inpatient cost by diversified means.