“双碳”背景下财政货币政策协调联动研究——基于DSGE的情景模拟

Research on the Coordinated Linkage of Fiscal and Monetary Policies under the Background of"Dual Carbon"--Based on DSGE Scenario Simulation

“双碳”目标的达成不是简单的减少碳排放量,而是在碳排放约束下实现更高质量的经济发展,平衡稳增长和促减排之间的关系。本文应用动态随机一般均衡模型,通过开展多情景政策模拟,分别考察碳税与碳减排支持工具的经济影响、作用机制及协调联动效果。研究发现:一是碳税工具虽然可以促进碳减排,但也会引发经济收缩,使金融体系面临较大转型风险,而碳减排支持工具虽然能够有效缓解经济下行压力及转型风险,但碳减排效果有限;二是碳税和碳减排支持工具协调联动既能缓解经济收缩压力、控制转型风险,又有显著的碳减排效果,能够在稳增长和促减排之间达到较好的平衡;三是居民消费偏好和绿色与非绿色产品之间的替代弹性大小,对两种工具在缓解经济收缩、控制转型风险及促进碳减排等方面的政策效果具有边际改善作用。

Achieving the"dual carbon"goal is not simply reducing carbon emissions,but achieving higher levels of economic development under carbon emission constraints and balancing the relationship between steady growth and promoting emission reduction.This paper applies a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to examine the economic impact,mechanism and coordinated linkage effect of carbon tax and carbon emission reduction support tools by conducting multi-scenario policy simulations.The study found:First,although the carbon tax tool can promote carbon emission reduction,it will also lead to economic contraction and pose greater transformation risks to the financial system.Although carbon emission reduction support tools can effectively alleviate economic downturn pressure and transformation risks,the effect of carbon emission reduction is limited.Second,the coordinated linkage of carbon tax and carbon emission reduction support tools can alleviate economic contraction pressure,control transformation risks,and have significant carbon emission reduction effects,achieving a good balance between steady growth and promoting emission reduction.Third,the marginal improvement of residents'consumption preferences and the substitution elasticity between green and non-green products has a marginal improvement effect on the policy effects of the two tools in alleviating economic contraction,controlling transformation risks and promoting carbon emission reduction.