重点产业政策如何抑制产业震荡?

How Do Key Industrial Policies Suppress Industrial Shakeouts?

产业震荡关乎产业链供应链安全和现代化产业体系构建。作为政府调控经济的重要手段,重点产业政策对产业震荡的影响成为各界关注的焦点问题。基于中国工业企业数据库和省级五年规划纲要文本,本文采用多期DID模型检验重点产业政策对产业震荡的影响及其作用机制。研究结果显示:重点产业政策显著抑制了产业震荡;重点产业政策对市场化程度高的地区、东部地区和东北地区产业震荡的抑制效应更为显著;重点产业政策通过提高资源配置效率和促进出口抑制产业震荡;不同类型的重点产业政策对产业震荡的影响不同,只有重点支柱产业政策显著抑制了产业震荡。上述研究结论为抑制产业震荡和促进产业安全提供了经验证据,也为更好地发挥产业政策有效性提供了参考和借鉴。

Industrial shakeout is a barometer of industrial security,which is not only related to the security of industrial chain and supply chain,but also affects the construction of modern industrial system.As an important means of the government􀆳s“effective hand”,the impact of key industrial policies on industrial shakeouts has become a focus of attention from all sectors.However,there is little literature in China exploring the relation between industrial policies and industrial shakeouts,and only a few studies have conducted theoretical analysis or empirical analysis on the triggering factors of industrial shocks for individual industries.There is no literature in China exploring the impact of key industrial policies on industrial shakeouts.In this context,this article explores the impact of key industrial policies on industrial shakeouts and its mechanism from the perspective of industries with three digital codes at the provincial level,which has important academic value and practical significance.This article,based on the Chinese Industrial Enterprise Database and the provincial five⁃year plan outline text,uses the DID with multiple time periods to test the impact of key industrial policies on industrial shakeouts and its mechanism.We find that key industrial policies significantly suppress industrial shakeouts.After changing the sample interval and replacing the PSM⁃DID method,the regression results remain robust.Mechanism analysis shows that key industrial policies suppress industrial shakeouts by improving resource allocation efficiency and promoting exports.Heterogeneity analysis shows that key industrial policies have a more significant inhibitory effect on industrial shakeouts in areas with high degree of marketization and in the eastern regions and northeastern regions.Further analysis shows that different types of key industrial policies have different impacts on industrial shocks,but only key pillar industrial policies significantly suppress industrial shakeouts.Compared with existing research,the marginal contributions of this article are as follows.Firstly,at the theoretical level,studying the effectiveness of key industrial policies from the perspective of industrial shakeouts enriches relevant research on industrial policies and industrial shakeouts.Secondly,it was verified that key industrial policies have a significantly inhibitory effect on industrial shakeouts,providing empirical support for maintaining industrial security and formulating industrial policies.Thirdly,the mechanism of the impact of key industrial policies on industrial shakeouts is verified from the perspectives of resource allocation efficiency and exports,and the impact of different types of key industrial policies on industrial shakeouts is further explored.This article reveals the mechanism of the impact of key industrial policies on industrial shakeouts,which can not only provide empirical evidence for restraining industrial shakeouts and promoting industrial security,but also provide reference and inspiration for better leveraging the effectiveness of industrial policies and accelerating the construction of modern industrial systems.