数字经济发展对能源要素错配的影响——来自中国地级及以上城市的经验数据

Impact of digital economy development on energy mismatch:Empirical data from prefecture-level and above cities in China

【目的】在资源浪费和环境污染问题日益严重的背景下,改善能源要素错配对中国推进供给侧改革以及早日实现“双碳”目标有重要作用。【方法】基于2011—2019年中国284个地级及以上城市的面板数据,首先采用加入能源因子的扩展C-D函数计算了能源要素错配程度,其次运用熵权—TOPSIS二元法计算了数字经济发展指数,接着通过基准模型、门槛模型和空间计量模型实证检验了数字经济发展与能源要素错配之间线性与非线性的相关关系。【结果】结果表明:(1)全国层面上,数字经济发展指数对当地能源要素错配程度有显著负向影响,分地区异质性检验结果与基准回归结果保持高度一致,其中中部地区发展数字经济最能够改善区域能源要素错配程度,其次是西部地区和东部地区。(2)在门槛约束条件下,城市蔓延和外商投资呈现显著的单一门槛特征,即在城市蔓延和外商投资越高的地区,数字经济发展越能改善当地能源要素错配。(3)空间效应方面,数字经济发展指数和能源要素错配程度在空间上均为显著正相关。由于存在空间溢出效应,数字经济发展在改善当地能源要素错配的同时,对周围地区能源要素错配同样起到了抑制作用。【结论】在未来发展数字经济时不但要因地制宜,还要考虑空间相关性。对此从强化基础设施、实现地区联动、推动企业数字化转型等方面提出有关建议。

[Objective] In the context of increasingly serious resources and environmental problems,improving the energy mismatch has an important role in promoting the supply-side reforms in China and achieving the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.[Methods] Based on the panel data of 284 prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2011 to 2019,the extension C-D function of the energy factors was used to calculate the degree of energy mismatch,and the digital economy development index was calculated using the entropy weight-TOPSIS dual method.This study also analyzed the linear and nonlinear correlations between the digital economic development and energy mismatch using the benchmark model,the threshold model,and the spatial econometric model.[Results] The results show that:(1) At the national level,the digital economy development index has a significant negative effect on the degree of local energy mismatch,and the results of heterogeneity tests by region are highly consistent with the benchmark regression results.Among them,the digital economy development in the central region of China can best improve the local energy mismatch,followed by the western region and the eastern region.(2) Under the condition of threshold constraints,urban spreads and foreign investment presented a significant single threshold feature,that is,in areas with higher urban spread and higher foreign investment,the more the digital economy development can improve the local energy mismatch.(3)In terms of spatial effects,the degree of energy mismatch is significantly positively correlated in space,and so is the digital economic development index.Due to the existence of spatial spillover effects,the digital economy development not only improved the local energy mismatch but also played an inhibitory role on the increase of the degree of energy mismatch factors in the surrounding areas.[Conclusion] When developing the digital economy in the future,we should not only adapt to local conditions,but also consider spatial correlations.Relevant recommendations were put forward in terms of strengthening infrastructure,improving regional linkages,and promoting the digital transformation of enterprises.