系统性金融风险:理论机制、预警体系与双支柱政策框架

Systemic Financial Risks:theoretical Mechanisms,Early Warning System and Two-Pillar Policy Framework

党的二十大报告提出了“以新安全格局保障新发展格局”的前进道路。本文结合“风险冲击—风险传染—风险扩散”这三个系统性金融风险生成演化的环节,阐述了动态金融安全观视角下统筹金融发展和金融安全的理论基础。围绕风险演化的三个环节,本文从实体经济脆弱性与金融部门脆弱性、关联性以及其负外部性等方面,对风险预警指标体系进行了细化,以监测金融风险发生之“因”,预测金融风险发生之“果”。最后,本文对宏观审慎政策和货币政策如何协调兼顾金融稳定和经济稳定的双支柱框架进行了总结分析并提出政策实施的优化方向。

This paper illustrates the theoretical basis of integrating financial development and financial security from the perspective of dynamic financial security,taking into account the three links of systemic financial risk generation and evolution,namely“risk shock-risk contagion-risk diffusion”.Focusing on the three links of risk evolution,the paper refines the risk early warning indicator system in terms of vulnerability,correlation and negative externality of the real economy and financial sector,in order to monitor the“cause”and predict the“effect”of financial risk occurrence.Finally,the paper summarizes and analyzes the two-pillar framework of how macroprudential policy and monetary policy can coordinate and balance financial stability and economic stability,and proposes the optimization direction of policy implementation.