海外投资政治风险的测度——基于行业维度投资争端案件的测度方法

Measurement of Political Risk of Outward Investment:measurement of Investment Dispute Cases Based on Industrial Dimension

近年来,中国已经成为重要的国际直接投资(Foreign Direct Investment,FDI)流出国,东道国政治风险是影响中国企业高水平走出去的重要因素。对海外投资政治风险的评价目前主要基于国别维度,缺乏行业维度,这严重制约了对相关问题的深入研究。在上述背景下,本文基于投资争端案件的累计数量和FDI存量,构建了从行业维度评价FDI政治风险水平的基础指标。在此基础上,引入投资壁垒强度作为调节变量,对基础指标进行了横向修正,解决了基础指标低估高风险行业风险水平的问题;引入历史案件影响力衰减系数和国际投资协定覆盖率修正系数,对基础指标进行了纵向修正,解决了其高估近期风险水平的问题;同时,还利用美国数据重新计算了行业FDI风险指标,解决了全球数据行业统计口径粗糙和样本时间较短的问题。针对指标可能存在的缺陷,本文还提出了在应用该指标进行经验研究时需注意的问题及其解决思路。

In recent years,China has become an important FDI outward country,and the political risk of the host country is an important factor affecting Chinese enterprises to go out at a high level.The evaluation of political risk of outward investment is currently mainly based on the country dimension and lacks the industrial dimension,which seriously restricts the in-depth study of related issues.Against the above background,this paper constructs a basic index for evaluating the level of FDI political risk from the industrial dimension based on the accumulated number of investment dispute cases and FDI stock.On this basis,the paper introduces the intensity of investment barriers as a moderating variable and makes horizontal corrections to the basic index,solving the problem that the basic index underestimates the risk level of high-risk industries;the paper also introduces the decay coefficient of historical case influence and the correction coefficient of international investment agreement coverage and makes vertical corrections to the basic index,solving the problem that it overestimates the recent risk level;at the same time,it also uses the U.S.data to recalculate the industry FDI risk indicators,solving the problems of rough statistical specification of global data industry and short sample time.In view of the possible shortcomings of the index,the paper also proposes the problems to be noted in applying the index to empirical research and the ideas to solve them.