中欧投资协定升级对中欧贸易的影响——基于OFDI的中介效应分析

The Impact of Upgraded China-EU Investment Agreement on Trade——Analysis of the Mediating Effect Based on OFDI

在中欧CAI谈判完成的背景下,文章概括了中国对欧盟OFDI及中欧贸易特征,总结了中欧BITs升级的政策背景及主要内容。基于2003—2019年的面板数据,通过构建中国对欧盟OFDI的中介效应模型,实证分析中欧BITs升级对中欧贸易的影响。研究发现:中欧BITs升级产生贸易创造效应,中国对欧盟OFDI发挥完全中介作用,且中国对欧盟OFDI产生的进口贸易创造效应更强,这将有利于减少欧盟对中国的贸易逆差。中方应积极参与国际投资规则变革,加大投资开放力度,中欧双方需加快推进中欧CAI批约进程,力争推动该协定早日签署生效。

In the context of the completion of Comprehensive Agreement on Investment(CAI)negotia⁃tions between China and the EU,this paper provides a comprehensive overview of China's Outward For⁃eign Direct Investment(OFDI)to the EU and the trade characteristics between China and the EU.It al⁃so summarizes the policy background and main content of the upgraded China-EU Bilateral Investment Treaties(BITs).Drawing on panel data from 2003 to 2019,this study empirically analyzes the effects of the upgraded China-EU BITs on bilateral trade by constructing an intermediary effect model of China's OFDI to the EU.The findings reveal that the upgraded China-EU BITs have a trade-creating effect.Chi⁃na's OFDI to the EU serves as a complete mediator,and the import trade-creating effect resulting from China's OFDI to the EU is particularly strong,which is conducive to reducing the EU’s trade deficit with China.It is recommended that China actively participate in the reform of international investment rules,increase investment liberalization,and both China and the EU should expedite the process of rati⁃fication of the CAI,aiming for its early signing and implementation.