中国胶合板出口贸易存在大国效应吗?

Does Large Country Effect Exist in China's Plywood Exports Trade?

基于2001年1月至2020年12月中国胶合板出口贸易数据,综合运用VAR模型、Spearman等级相关系数、加入中国因素前后的国际胶合板价格对比、Matlab函数拟合与边际价格估计等方法展开动态研究,检验中国胶合板出口贸易是否存在显性大国效应或隐性大国效应,明确大国效应的作用区间及影响程度,估算大国效应造成的贸易获利减少额;研究发现:虽然中国胶合板出口贸易的显性大国效应不显著,但是存在隐性大国效应;在大国效应作用的样本区间内,中国胶合板月度出口量每增加1%,国际胶合板价格下跌约0.14%;受大国效应影响,中国胶合板月度出口量由57.20万m^(3)增长至84.75万m^(3)时,会使贸易获利减少约2564.70万美元;因此,为弱化大国效应的负面影响,应改变胶合板“以量取胜”的出口扩张模式,以高品质和优品牌获取更多的贸易利益;发挥行业协会统一对外议价作用,避免低价恶性竞争行为;通过出口多元化、签订长期合同来稳定胶合板出口价格;在出现大国效应的区间,考虑采取脉动式出口方式。

⑴Background——China is the largest exporter of plywood,which objectively satisfies the prerequisite for the emergence and existence of the large country effect.Will the continuous growth of China's plywood exports trade volume lead to China's plywood exports trade stuck in a dilemma of“selling down”?This is directly related to the economic benefits of China's participation in the international plywood trade.However,the existing literatures do not test whether the explicit large country effect and the implicit large country effect exist in China's plywood exports trade,there are no analyses of the impact of the change of China's plywood exports trade volume on the international plywood prices,and there are also no quantitative researches of the reduction of trade profits caused by China's plywood large country effect.⑵Methods——Based on the International Monetary Fund Primary Commodity Price System database,World Bank Commodity Price Data(The Pink Sheet)database and the information network of Development Re-search Center of the State Council,the exports trade data of China's plywood from January 2001 to December 2020 was selected,the VAR model and Spearman's rank correlation coefficient,comparative analysis of international plywood prices before and after adding China factors,Matlab function fitting and marginal price estimation were comprehensively used to analyze whether the explicit large country effect and the implicit large country effect exist in China's plywood exports trade,clarify the range and extent of the large country effect,estimate the reduction in trade profits caused by the large country effect,and therefore provide theoretical basis for weakening the negative impact of large country effect.⑶Results——According to Granger causality test,in the whole sample interval,the original hypothesis is accepted(χ^(2)=2.12,P=0.35),indicating that there is no large country effect.But according to Spearman's rank correlation coefficient and the comparative analysis of international plywood prices before and after adding China factors,it is found that there is an implicit large country effect in China's plywood exports trade.That is,although the explicit large country effect of China's plywood exports trade is not significant,there is an implicit large country effect,which means that the increase of China's plywood exports volume will lead to the decline of the international plywood price.In the sample range,for every 1%increase in the monthly exports volume of China's plywood,the international plywood price drops by about 0.14%.Influenced by the large country effect,when the monthly exports volume of China's plywood increases from 0.572 million m^(3)to 0.848 m^(3),the trade profit will decrease by about$25.647 million.⑷Conclusions and Discussions——The large country effect exists in China's plywood exports trade,under the influence of the large country effect,the profit of China's plywood exports trade will decrease.Therefore,in order to weaken the negative impact of the large country effect,the following policy recommendations are proposed:First,change the exports expansion mode of plywood“winning by quantity”,and gain more trade benefits through high added value,high quality and excellent brands of the plywood,so as to realize the transformation from a“great trading country”to a“strong trading country”.Second,give full play to the unified role of trade associations in external bargaining,realize the sharing of information,and avoid the vicious competition at low prices.Third,stabilize the export price of plywood by diversifying exports and signing long-term contracts with Russia,South America and other countries.In addition,it is also necessary to consider taking the pulsating exports mode to avoid the“selling down”dilemma within the range where the large country effect exists.