人口老龄化与涉老服务业就业--来自广东的经验证据

Population Aging and the Employment in Geriatric Service Industry--Empirical Evidence from Guangdong

基于广东人口老龄化的背景,从供给和需求两个角度,剖析人口老龄化影响涉老服务业就业的理论机制;运用基于VAR模型的脉冲响应函数及方差分解工具,实证考察广东人口老龄化对涉老服务业就业的动态影响。实证结果表明:在短期,人口老龄化对涉老服务业就业产生正向效应;在长期,这种正向效应会逐渐减弱。方差分解显示,人口老龄化对涉老服务业就业具有较大贡献度。基于文中分析所得到的结论,提出了相关政策建议。

Based on the background of population aging in Guangdong Province,this paper analyzes the impact mechanism of population aging on geriatric service industry employment from the perspectives of supply and demand.Impulse response function based on VAR model and variance decomposition technique are used to empirically investigate the dynamic impact of population aging on employment in the geriatric service industry.The empirical results show that in the short term,population aging will have a positive effect on the geriatric service industry,and this positive effect will gradually weaken in the long run.The variance decomposition indicates that the population aging also makes a certain contribution to the employment of geriatric service industry.Based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions to promote the employment level of geriatric service industry in Guangdong.