人口普查覆盖误差估计方法研究

Research on Census Coverage Error Estimation Methodology

采取文献解读法和数理模型法研究人口普查覆盖误差的估计量.研究结果表明:双系统估计量和合成漏报估计量须在等概率人口层建立,而多报估计量在总体类构造;分层刀切法适合于人口普查覆盖误差估计量的方差估计.创新性提出的合成漏报估计量益于人口普查覆盖误差估计量在政府统计部门中的推广应用.

The methods of literature interpretation and mathematical modeling are used to study the estimation of population census coverage error.The research shows that the dual system estimator and the combined omission estimator must be established in the equal probability population stratum,while the erroneous enumeration estimator can be constructed in the population.The stratified jack-knife method is suitable for the variance estimation of the population census coverage error estimator.The research innovation lies in proposing a combined omission estimator.The value of the research lies in the fact that the estimators of population census coverage error is expected to be popularized and applied in governmental statistical departments.