嫁给未来:当代青年的就业稳定性与初婚缔结

Considering the Future:Contemporary Youth's Employment Stability and First Marriage Contraction

随着“零工经济”的发展,青年群体的就业稳定性受到一定挑战。就业的这一变化必然对婚姻与家庭产生影响。文章基于2010年到2018年五期中国家庭追踪调查数据,探讨青年的就业稳定性与婚姻决策的关系。分析表明,拥有体制内稳定工作的男青年有更高的概率缔结初婚,并且这种效应随着就业时间的增加而逐渐凸显。本研究证实了稳定的就业对婚姻的促进作用,因此应对人口发展的少子化、老龄化等趋势性特征,需要注意日趋不稳定的就业对青年人婚姻的阻碍作用。

The rise of the"gig economy"has profound effects on the employment stability of young people,subsequently impacting their marriage decisions.Based on 5 waves of China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)data,this article finds that young men engaged in stable employment within the state-owned sectors have a higher likelihood of entering into their first marriage,with this effect becoming more pronounced as their years of employment increase.These results validate the positive influence of stable employment on marriage.Consequently,in addressing demographic trends such as declining birth rates and population aging,it is crucial to acknowledge the impact of increasingly unstable employment on the marital prospects of young people.