消费收缩、结构分化与消费差异特征

Consumption Contraction,Structural Differentiation and Consumption Differentiation Characteristics

消费已成为中国经济发展的“主引擎”和“压舱石”,未来消费仍将是拉动内需的主要动力。从消费主体看,最终消费以居民消费为主,其中城镇消费持续稳步提升,而农村消费占比不断下滑。从消费结构看,居民消费以“食”“住”等生存性消费为主,两项占比超半数以上,其他发展性消费有待提升。从消费差异看:(1)就区域差异而言,东部经济发达地区由于居住成本过高,挤压了其他消费,尤其是有益于个人发展的教育、健康等消费升级过程。而中部地区居民教育文化娱乐消费和医疗保健消费占比相对较高,消费升级具有较大潜力。(2)就城乡差异而言,农村居民人均消费增速快于城镇居民,新冠疫情冲击对农村居民人均消费影响较小,预计随着政策的加力提效、经济活动的恢复,农村居民将会推动生活必需消费品的恢复,而城镇居民有望推动发展型消费品的恢复。(3)对于不同收入阶层,消费收缩分别表现为“无钱可花”“钱少不敢花”“有钱不愿花”“钱多没处花”的特征。疫情冲击使得居民消费信心呈现断崖式下跌,消费收缩并呈现出结构性分化特征,消费升级受阻。未来为应对冲击,应重点关注消费的结构性特征,把握好短期和中长期政策节奏,促进消费有序平稳恢复。从短期来看,提振消费最有效的方式是采取有针对性的刺激政策,以激发居民的消费活力,重振消费信心。从长期来看,则要切实有效地提升消费能力、增强消费意愿、激发消费潜力、优化消费环境,使消费者“能消费”“敢消费”“愿消费”。

Consumption has become the"main engine"and"ballast stone"of China′s economic development,and future consumption will still be the main driving force for domestic demand.From the perspective of consumer subjects,final consumption is dominated by household consumption,of which urban consumption continues to increase steadily,while the proportion of rural consumption continues to decline.From the perspective of consumption structure,residents′consumption is mainly subsistence consumption such as"food"and"housing",accounting for more than half of them,and other developmental consumption needs to be improved.From the perspective of consumption differences,(1)in terms of regional differences,the high cost of living in the eastern developed economic regions,reduces other personal consumptions,especially education,health and other upgrading consumption processes.However,the proportion of education,culture,entertainment and medical care consumption of residents in the central region is relatively high,and consumption upgrading has great potential.(2)In terms of urban-rural differences,the per capita consumption of rural residents has grown faster than that of urban ones,and the impact of the epidemic on the per capita consumption of rural residents is small,and it is expected that with the strengthened policies and the recovery of economic activities,rural residents will promote the recovery of essential consumer goods,while urban residents are expected to promote the recovery of development-oriented consumer goods.(3)In terms of income class differences,consumption contraction types are manifested as"no money to spend","dare not to spend with less money","no willing to spend with money","no place to spend with more money".The impact of the epidemic has reduced household consumption by nearly 3 trillion yuan a year,residents′consumer confidence has fallen off a cliff,gathering consumption such as catering,entertainment,and tourism has been seriously impacted,and consumption upgrading has been blocked.In the future,in order to cope with the shock,the most effective ways in the short term to boost consumption are adopted to stimulate residents′consumption vitality and restore consumer confidence.In the long run,it is necessary to effectively improve consumption capacity,enhance consumption willingness,stimulate consumption potential,and optimize the consumption environment,so that consumers can"consume","dare to consume"and"are willing to consume".