2023年社会融资规模预测与分析

Prediction and Analysis of Total Social Financing in 2023

社会融资规模既反映了实体经济发展所需的金融资源,也体现为实体经济承担的债务。本文从金融资源需求潜力与供给约束两个视角预测金融数据,综合国内外主流机构预测结果及政府工作报告目标,GDP中性情景为5%,对应社融新增规模预计达到33.82-34.71万亿元,存量增速9.82-10.08%;人民币贷款新增规模预计20.97-22.56万亿元,余额增速9.80-10.54%。

Total social financing(TSF)not only reflects the financial resources needed for the development of the real economy,but also reflects the debt borne by the real economy.This paper forecasts TSF from the perspective of demand and supply of financial resources.Integrate the forecast results of domestic and foreign mainstream institutions and government work report objectives,GDP growth rate is 5%under the neutral assumption,the increase of TSF is expected to reach 33.82-34.71 trillion yuan,and the growth rate of TSF is 9.82-10.08%;the increase of RMB loans is expected to be 20.97-22.56 trillion yuan,with a growth rateof 9.80-10.54%.