知青上山下乡、劳动力错配与中国城乡差距--来自省级面板数据的经验证据

Labor Misallocation and the Widening Urban-Rural Gap in China:Evidence from Send-Down Movement

1968年底,中国开展了大规模的城镇知青上山下乡运动。理论分析表明,在人均耕地资源紧张的要素禀赋下,知青下乡意味着在有限的土地上追加投入劳动力要素,加剧了中国农业社会的过密化生产,农业总产出未能成比例提高,人均产出反而下降;由于路径依赖,知青下乡规模大的地区,恰恰是赶超发展战略激进地区,粮食征购率高,城镇居民消费水平也较高。因此,知青下乡不但没有消除城乡差别,反而扩大了城乡差距。利用1969—1979年省级面板数据,本文发现知青下乡运动实质是赶超发展战略下城乡劳动力资源的错配。

China had launched a movement to send massive urban educated youth to the countryside at the end of 1968.We testify that with shortage of per capita cultivated land,massive educated youth migrating to the countryside means adding extra labor to the limited land,and aggravates the involution of agricultural production in China.The total agricultural output does not increase proportionally,while the per capita output declines.The regions with more educated youth migrating to the countryside behave more radically in heavy industry production,thus their grain purchase rate and consumption of urban residents are higher.Therefore,the send-down movement did not eliminate the urban-rural differences,but widened the gap between urban and rural areas.