银川7月10日强降水预报偏差及决策服务复盘

Reviewing Weather Forecast Deviation and Decision-making Services of the Heavy Precipitation in Yinchuan on July 10th

2022年7月10日夜间,银川市出现一次小时雨强大、降水时间集中、主要落区在银川市区的强降水天气过程,造成了较为严重的城市内涝。通过复盘分析此次过程,表明:数值预报在此次强降水天气过程中有一定偏差,但有很好的指示意义;基于多源监测资料发布的预警信号和风险产品,对短期时段发布的预报偏差起到很好的订正和补充作用;银川市气象局“531-63”递进式业务成效显著,此次过程预报准确、整体衔接顺畅、服务及时准确全面,为决策提供了有力依据,第一道防线作用发挥明显,气象灾害防御指挥部作用进一步发挥,部门联动机制进一步畅通。

On the night of July 10,2022,there was a heavy rainfall weather process in Yinchuan with strong hourly rain,concentrated precipitation time,and the main heavy precipitation area in Yinchuan,resulting in relatively serious urban waterlogging.By reviewing and analysis this process,the results show that:the numerical predictions have a little deviation but good indicative significance for this heavy rainfall weather process;based on the multi-source observation data,the early warnings and risk products can correct and supplement the previous weather forecast;Yinchuan Meteorological bureau follow the"531-63"work flow made a good effect that the process prediction is accurate、the overall connection is smooth、the service is timely,accurate and comprehensive,which provides a strong basis for decision-making,the first line of defense plays an obvious role,the function of meteorological disaster prevention headquarters developed more,and the interdepartmental mechanism become more smooth.