基于SD演化博弈的新能源车动力电池回收监管策略研究

Regulatory Strategies of New Energy Vehicle Power Battery Recycling Based on SD Evolutionary Game

大规模新能源车动力电池逐步退役,如何有效回收利用成为社会难题.基于生产者责任延伸原则,NEV车企是承担动力电池回收责任的主体,政府合理的监管与奖惩及消费者的参与将影响动力电池回收的效果.建立有限理性条件下的“车企-消费者-政府”三方演化博弈模型,运用系统动力学(System Dynamics,SD)动态仿真与反馈结构分析方法,模拟各博弈主体策略的动态演化过程,分析导致演化趋势的反馈结构机制.研究结果表明:系统三个演化稳定均衡策略分别对应动力电池回收产业的初期、发展和成熟三个阶段,政府在不同阶段扮演着不同的角色;回收初期,与补贴政策相比,政府对退役动力电池供需两侧的监管惩罚更为关键;随着回收技术成熟和公众环保意识提高,退役电池回收有利可图,车企将主动积极回收,此时政府将逐步减少干预,最终演变为宽松监管,从而实现由政府外生监管转变为盈利内生驱动的回收利用演化路径.研究为制定有效的新能源汽车动力电池回收监管政策提供了理论依据,同时也扩大了演化博弈理论稳定均衡分析与SD动态仿真方法交叉结合、进行政策制定研究的理论和现实应用背景.

Large-scale New Energy Vehicle(NEV) power batteries are gradually retired,and how to effectively recycle them has become a social problem.Based on the extended producer responsibility regime,NEV manufacturers are the main body responsible for power battery recycling.Government regulation and consumer participation will affect the effect of power battery recycling.This paper develops a bounded rational tripartite evolutionary game model of "NEV manufacturerconsumer-government";The dynamic simulation and feedback structure analysis methods of System Dynamics(SD) are used to simulate the dynamic evolution process of each game player's strategy,and analyze the feedback structure mechanism that leads to the evolution trend.The results showed that three evolutionary stable strategies are correspond to the initial,development and maturity stages of the power battery recycling industry,respectively,and the government plays different roles in different stages.In the early stage of waste battery recycling,compared with the subsidy policy,the government 's regulation and punishment on both NEV manufacturers and consumers are more critical;With the maturity of recycling technology and the improvement of the public's awareness of environmental protection,the recycling of retired batteries is profitable,and NEV manufacturer will actively conduct recycling,and the government tends to gradually reduce intervention,and eventually evolves into loose regulation,so as to realize the evolutionary path of recycling driven by endogenous profits instead of exogenous government regulation.Our paper provides a theoretical basis for formulating an effective regulatory policy on NEV power battery recycling,and also expands the theoretical and practical application background of the combination of evolutionary game theory stability equilibrium analysis and SD dynamic simulation methods for policy formulation research.