国际贸易中“一带一路”国家需求对中国的经济环境影响

The economic and environmental effects of the Belt and Road Countries’demand on China in the international trade

在绿色“一带一路”倡议背景下,本文以隐含碳强度指标为核心,构建需求的跨境经济和碳排放影响综合分析框架,评估“一带一路”沿线国家需求对中国的经济和环境影响.结果显示,沿线国家需求对中国增加值、碳排放及总碳排放强度的影响能力正日渐增强.然而,相比于世界其他国家,沿线国家需求结构中高隐含碳强度产业占比较高,导致其整体上具有更高的隐含碳强度,意味着当前中国需要排放更多的碳排放来获取分工收益;要实现绿色“一带一路”愿景,南亚是关键区域,采矿和采石、石油、化学和非金属矿产、金属是关键产业;反映供应链的生产结构差异是沿线国家在中国具有高隐含碳强度的主因,表明供应链转型对构建绿色“一带一路”具有重要潜力.本文首次系统评估了沿线国家需求通过国际贸易对中国的经济和碳排放影响,明确了一个过往研究所忽视的绿色“一带一路”挑战,从关键区域治理、关键产业治理和绿色供应链转型等三方面提出了政策启示.同时,本文开发的跨境经济和碳排放影响综合分析框架为后续其他环境指标研究提供了方法论基础.

With the core of embodied carbon intensity,this paper constructs a comprehensive analysis framework of cross-border economic and carbon emission impacts,assessing the impacts of the Belt and Road on China’s economy and environment.The results show that the demand of the Belt and Road places a more critical effect on China’s value-added,carbon emission,and aggregate carbon intensity.Compared with other countries,the proportion of industries with high embodied carbon intensity in the demand of the Belt and Road is relatively higher,resulting in China’s higher embodied carbon intensity,indicating that China has to benefit from specialization through more carbon emission.To achieve the vision of Green Belt and Road,South Asia is a key region.Mining and quarrying,petroleum,chemical and non-metallic mineral products,metal products are key sectors.The difference in supply chain production structure effect is the main reason for China’s higher embodied carbon intensity,suggesting that the supply chain transformation plays a significant role in Green Belt and Road.This paper first systematically analyzes the economic and carbon emissions impacts of the Belt and Road on China through international trade,clarifying the challenge of building Green Belt and Road that is ignored in the previous literature and proposes three policy implications on key regional governance,key industrial governance,and transformation of the green supply chain.The comprehensive analysis framework of cross-border economic and carbon emissions effects proposed provides a methodological basis for other environmental indicators.