国际有色金属价格波动对中国产业链的传导机制与效应--基于双层复杂网络模型

Transmission mechanism and effect of international nonferrous metal price fluctuation to China’s industrial chain:Based on a two-layer complex network model

【目的】从复杂系统的视角揭示国际有色金属价格波动对中国产业链的传导机制,对于防止经济运行风险进一步积聚具有现实意义。【方法】基于供给成本驱动角度分析国际有色金属价格波动传导过程,并构建滞后1—4期的双层复杂网络模型,将有色金属期货市场空间传导过程与产业链垂直传导过程进行连通分析,同时测算了有色金属价格波动对产业链的传导效应。【结果】①国际有色金属期货价格波动可以在短期内传导至国内产业链下游大部分行业。②价格波动传导过程中,初期和后期两个阶段发挥波动溢出者、中介者作用的有色金属关键期货种类或重点行业会发生变化。③有色金属价格上涨10%的情况下,中游行业随之上涨,而下游行业以下跌为主。上下游行业一直存在价格传导阻滞,上游行业成本压力并未得到有效释放。【结论】国际有色金属期货价格波动明显增加了国内有色金属产业链关联企业特别是下游企业的成本管控压力,要警惕有色金属价格传导受阻引发的输入型通胀风险。建议在有色金属价格发生较大波动时从前期、后期对有色金属关键期货种类和重点行业实施动态化监管,以及激励更多受有色金属价格波动影响的关联企业使用期货工具对成本进行管控。

[Objective]The objective of this study was to reveal the transmission mechanism of international nonferrous metal price fluctuation to China’s industrial chain from the perspective of complex system,which has important practical significance for preventing the further accumulation of economic risks.[Methods]Based on the supply cost-driven perspective,the transmission process of international nonferrous metal price fluctuation was analyzed,and a twolayer complex network model with 1-4 lags was constructed.The spatial transmission process of nonferrous metal futures market was connected with the vertical transmission process of the industrial chain,and the transmission effect of nonferrous metal price fluctuation on the industrial chain was calculated.[Results](1)The price fluctuation of international nonferrous metal futures can be transmitted to most downstream industries of the industrial chain of China in a short time.(2)In the transmission process of price fluctuation,the key futures types or key industries of nonferrous metals that play the volatility spillover and mediation roles will change in the early and late stages.(3)When the price of nonferrous metals rises by 10%,price in the midstream industry will rise,while price in the downstream industry will fall.There has been a price block between upstream and downstream industries,and the cost pressure in upstream industry has not been effectively released.[Conclusion]The fluctuation of international nonferrous metal futures prices significantly increases the cost control pressure of nonferrous metal industrial chain related enterprises in China,especially downstream enterprises.Therefore,we should be alert to the import inflation risk caused by the blocked transmission of nonferrous metal prices.It is recommended to implement dynamic supervision on key futures types and key industries of nonferrous metals in the early and late stages when the price of nonferrous metals fluctuates greatly,and to encourage more associated enterprises affected by price fluctuations of nonferrous metals to use futures tools to control costs.