绿色金融发展的碳减排效应

The carbon emission reduction effect of green finance development

【目的】如何有效释放绿色金融发展的“降碳”红利是新发展格局下国家践行“双碳”战略的重大抉择。【方法】本文在系统阐释绿色金融助力碳减排三维机制的基础上,基于省级面板数据,采用面板中介效应、分位数等方法做了实证考察。【结果】①绿色金融的快速发展显著抑制了中国碳排放,完全可成为国家加速实现“双碳”目标的新动能,这一结果在进行一系列稳健性检验后仍然成立;②绿色金融不仅可为“降碳”提供直接动力,还能通过加速产业升级、驱动绿色技术创新等途径间接对碳减排产生积极影响,但现阶段绿色金融发展的间接“降碳”效应尚远逊其直接效应;③积极引导社会投资切实为碳减排提供助力是绿色金融施策的关键环节,但目前该路径尚未畅通,“降碳”效果还极为有限,这预示着政府应进一步优化顶层设计和强化制度引领;④绿色金融对碳减排的现实冲击效果并非一成不变,而是存在明显的阶段性“结构突变”特征,即随着碳排放水平的持续降低,绿色金融发展的“降碳”效果将会逐步增强,且较低碳排放水平情景下绿色金融发展的碳减排效应将更为明显。【结论】本文证实了“双碳”进程中提供绿色金融支持的有效性和必要性,也发现分阶段、有重点、动态化的绿色金融策略更有利于发挥“降碳”的引领和倒逼作用,以上发现对于未来国家执行和优化“双碳”相关政策具有一定的参考价值。

[Objective]How to effectively release the“carbon reduction dividend”of green finance development is a major choice for China to implement the“dual carbon”strategy under the new development pattern.[Methods]On the basis of systematically explaining the three-dimensional mechanism of green finance assisting carbon emission reduction,an empirical study was conducted by using panel mediation effect,quantile,and other methods and provincial panel data.[Results]The study found that:(1)The rapid development of green finance has significantly inhibited China’s carbon emissions and can become a new momentum for China to accelerate the achievement of the“dual carbon”goals,and this result still holds after a series of robustness tests.(2)Green finance not only can provide direct impetus for carbon reduction,but also have a positive impact indirectly on carbon emission reduction by accelerating industrial upgrading and driving green technological innovation.However,the direct carbon reduction effect of the development of green finance at this stage far exceeds the indirect effect.(3)Actively guiding private capital to effectively contribute to carbon emission reduction is the key link of green financial policy,but at the present,the path has not been smooth and the effect of carbon reduction is extremely limited,which indicates that the government should further optimize the top-level design and strengthen the guidance of the system.(4)The actual impact of green finance on carbon emission reduction is not invariable,but has obvious phased“structural transformation”characteristics,that is,with the continuous reduction of carbon emission level,the carbon reduction effect of green finance development will be enhanced gradually,and the carbon emission reduction effect of green finance development will be more obvious under the low-level carbon emission situation.[Conclusion]This study confirmed the effectiveness and necessity of providing green financial support in the process of achieving the“dual carbon”goals,and also found that phased,focused,and dynamic green financial strategy is more conducive to playing the leading and driving role of carbon reduction.The above findings have certain reference value for the future implementation and optimization of the“dual carbon”goals related policies in the country.