农村非农就业稳定性对转出户农地流转续约的影响及其机制

Impact and mechanism of rural non-agricultural employment stability on farmland transfer contract extension of transfer-out households

【目的】促进转出户农地流转续约是增强地权期限稳定性、发展适度规模经营和加快农业强国建设的根本前提。新就业形态下转出户非农就业稳定性受到严峻挑战,进而影响其农地流转续约达成。然而,现有研究尚未关注非农就业稳定性与农地流转续约之间的因果效应及其影响机制。【方法】本文基于陕西和甘肃2省516户农地转出户数据,从非农就业时间、非农收入占比、非农就业满意度3个层面刻画并测度非农就业稳定性,并采用Ⅳ-Heckman模型和中介效应法实证分析非农就业稳定性对转出户农地流转续约的影响及作用机理。【结果】(1)样本区农地转出户非农就业稳定性均值为3.016,58.72%的转出户愿意流转续约,平均流转续约期限为3.752年。(2)在克服非农就业稳定性测量误差和双向因果关系导致的内生问题以及续约意愿产生的样本选择问题后,非农就业稳定性对转出户流转续约意愿和续约期限均具有正向显著影响,并且这一结果具有良好稳健性。(3)机制分析表明,非农就业稳定性通过人口吸附效应和生计风险感知同时影响农地流转续约意愿和续约期限,通过转出收益预期仅影响农地流转续约意愿。【结论】本文提出了增强企业非农就业吸纳能力、提高转出户非农就业技能、加强非农就业地基本公共服务供给、加强农地流转续约全链条管理等政策建议。

[Objective]Promoting farmland transfer contract extension of transfer-out households is the fundamental premise of for strengthening and stabilizing the farmland rights,developing moderate&scale management,and establishing a strong agricultural country.Under the new employment form,the stability of non-agricultural employment of transfer-out households is severely challenged,which further affects whether they will continue to sign farmland transfer contracts.However,previous research has not revealed the causal effect and transmission mechanism between the stability of rural non-agricultural employment and the contract extension of farmland transfer-out households.[Methods]Based on the data of 516 farmland transfer-out households in Shaanxi and Gansu Provinces,this study measured the stability of non-agricultural employment from non-agricultural employment time,non-agricultural income proportion,and nonagricultural employment satisfaction,and employed the IV-Heckman model and mediation effect analysis to empirically analyze the impact and mechanism of the stability of rural non-agricultural employment on the contract extension of farmland transfer-out households.[Results](1)The average non-agricultural employment stability of farmland transfer-out households was 3.016,58.72%of the transfer-out households were willing to extend farmland transfer contracts,and the average extension period was 3.752 years.(2)After overcoming the measurement error and the endogeneity issues caused by the reverse causality of non-agricultural employment stability,as well as the sample selection issue caused by farmland transfer-out households’willingness to extend contracts,non-agricultural employment stability had a positive effect on transfer-out households’extension willingness and extension period.The empirical results are robust.(3)Mechanism analysis showed that non-agricultural employment stability affects both extension willingness and extension period through the population adsorption effect and livelihood risk perception,and only affects extension willingness through the farmland transfer-out earnings expectation.[Conclusion]This article put forward some policy recommendations,including strengthening the ability of enterprises to create non-agricultural jobs,improving the skills of non-agricultural employment of farmland transfer-out households,enhancing the supply of basic public services in non-agricultural employment cities,and strengthening the management of the whole chain of farmland transfer contract extension.