基于烟羽模型的城市腹地划分——以芜湖市为例

Urban Hinterland Division Based on The Plume Model:A Case Study Of Wuhu City

本文以芜湖市为研究对象,选取了2015-2019年芜湖市生产总值、货运量、邮电业务量、公路通车里程等十一个指标建立了城市综合实力评价指标体系,对芜湖市城市发展何变化进行了量化分析,之后基于烟羽模型重点测算了芜湖市2015-2019年城市腹地的变化情况,并结合城市基础设施建设规划指标、经济发展指标,对芜湖市2025年、2035年的腹地变化情况进行了测算,结果表明,芜湖市腹地影响程度随着时间的推移增长趋势明显,2019年芜湖市腹地影响程度年平均值为18.6,2025年、2035平均值将分别增长到27.3和44.3,由此说明基础设施的完善、经济的发展,将大幅促进芜湖市腹地的提升。

This paper takes Wuhu as the research object, selects eleven indicators of Wuhu from 2015 to 2019, including gross domestic product(GDP), freight volume, post and telecommunications service volume and highway mileage, to establish an evaluation index system of urban comprehensive strength, and makes a quantitative analysis of the changes in urban development of Wuhu. Key measure based on the model after the Wuhu city from 2015 to 2019 changes of the hinterland, and connecting with the urban infrastructure construction planning, economic development, in Wuhu in 2025, 2035, changes in the heart of the calculation,the results show that Wuhu hinterland influence over time growth trend is obvious, In 2019, the average annual impact degree of hinterland in Wuhu is 18.6, and in 2025 and 2035, the average can increase to 27.3 and 44.3respectively, indicating that the improvement of infrastructure and economic development can greatly promote the improvement of hinterland in Wuhu.