基于离散选择模型中转机场选择影响因素——以东南亚-北美市场为例

Analysis on Influencing Factors of Transit Airport Selection Based on Discrete Selection Model:In the Case of Southeast Asia-North America Market

东南亚-北美市场的中转市场需求强劲,各中转机场竞争激烈,中转旅客的偏好对机场的发展有着重要的影响。本文基于离散选择模型来分析中转机场特征以及机票价格对旅客选择行为的影响,其中机场特征包括国际客运量、旅客中转率、航班准点率、衡量连通性的连通指数和绕行程度的绕航系数。回归结果发现,国际客运量、旅客中转率、航班准点率对旅客效用有正向影响,绕行程度和机票价格有负向影响,其中旅客对航班准点率,以及绕行程度低的机场有较高的中转支付意愿。因此,对于机场和航空公司来说,提高航班准点率,发挥机场区位优势,注重绕行程度低的中转航线是提高竞争力的有效途径。

The transit market demand in the Southeast Asia-North America market is strong, and the competition among transit airports is fierce. The preference of transit passengers has an important impact on the development of the airport. Based on the discrete choice model, this paper analyzes the characteristics of transfer airports and the impact of ticket prices on passenger choice behavior. The characteristics of airports include international passenger volume, passenger transfer rate, on-time performance, connectivity index to measure connectivity and detour coefficient. The regression results show that international passenger volume,passenger transit rate and on-time performance have a positive impact on passenger utility, and the degree of detour and ticket price have a negative impact. Among them, passengers have a higher willingness to pay for improving the punctuality rate of flights and choosing airports with low degree of detour. For airports and airlines, working together to improve the on-time performance, giving full play to the regional advantages of the airport and paying attention to bypassing transit routes with low degree is an effective way to improve their competitiveness.