面向工业污染源排放的城市大气环境系统韧性评价及其时空演化

Evaluation of the resilience of urban atmospheric system and its spatial and temporal evolution for industrial pollution source emissions

关中城市群是西部地区两大城市群之一。在该区域内有较多重污染企业。为探索关中城市群各市大气环境系统的韧性水平,将韧性理念应用于城市大气环境系统,并以工业污染源排放为视角,建立基于风险矩阵理论(RMA)与PSR的韧性评价模型,利用基于博弈论的组合赋权法确定PSR权重,并采用Sobol方法对模型进行敏感性分析,实现对关中城市群2018-2020年城市大气环境系统韧性时序演化及空间分布的实证分析。结果表明:非甲烷总烃、甲醇、氟化物及硫化氢属于敏感参数,其中甲醇为高敏感参数;从时间维度看,2019年关中城市群各城市大气环境系统韧性水平普遍高于2018年和2020年;从空间维度看,关中城市群各城市大气环境系统韧性水平呈现出“非均衡不稳定性”,3年中仅有西安、渭南及平凉3市达到高度韧性水平,中低韧性区域占绝大部分。提出相应的区域大气污染控制策略,如加强城市间的经验交流和分工协作、发挥西安的辐射带动作用、实施韧性区分类管理等。本研究可为关中城市群城市大气环境系统韧性建设提供参考。

As one of the two major urban agglomerations in the western region,the Guanzhong Urban Agglomeration has a large number of heavy polluting enterprises,and faces huge environmental pressure along with economic growth.In order to explore the level of resilience of the air environment system of each city in the Guanzhong Urban Agglomeration,the concept of resilience was applied to the urban air environment system for the first time,and a resilience evaluation model based on risk matrix theory(RMA)and PSR was established from the perspective of industrial pollution source emissions,the PSR weights were determined by using a combination assignment method based on game theory,and the Sobol method was used for sensitivity analysis of the model to realize an empirical analysis,so as to achieve the empirical analysis of the temporal evolution and spatial distribution of the resilience of the urban atmospheric system in Guanzhong Urban Agglomeration from 2018 to 2020.The results showed that total non-methane hydrocarbons,methanol,fluoride and hydrogen sulfide were sensitive parameters,among which methanol was a highly sensitive parameter;from the time dimension,the resilience level of the air environment system of cities in Guanzhong Urban Agglomeration in 2019 was generally higher than that in 2018 and 2020;from the spatial dimension,the resilience level of the air environment system of cities in Guanzhong Urban Agglomeration showed a"nonequilibrium In the past three years,only Xi'an,Weinan and Pingliang had reached a high level of resilience,and most of the areas with low to medium resilience.In the end,corresponding strategies were proposed,such as strengthening the exchange of experiences and the division of labor among cities,giving play to the role of Xi'an's radiation drive,and implementing the classification and management of resilient areas,to provide ideas and basis for the construction of resilient urban air environment systems in the Guanzhong Urban Agglomeration.