中国城市流动人口就业行业选择分异及影响因素

Employment choice of the floating population and influencing factors in China

准确把握流动人口就业特征是制定相关就业政策的重要基础。论文利用2017年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据,划分传统第二产业、高技术制造业、传统服务业和现代服务业等就业行业,分析流动人口就业行业选择差异,建立多层多项logistic回归模型,从个体层次和城市层次揭示其影响因素,结果表明:(1)流动人口在就业市场处于弱势地位,其就业选择仍以传统服务业和传统第二产业为主,从事高技术制造业和现代服务业等新兴产业就业的比例较低。(2)流动人口就业选择存在空间差异,东部地区流动人口选择传统第二产业和高技术制造业就业的比例较高,且以长三角、珠三角和山东半岛等发达地区最为突出;中西部地区和东北地区流动人口就业选择以传统服务业为主,部分城市现代服务业就业的比例相对较高,但传统第二产业、高技术制造业就业比例均较低。(3)流动人口就业选择是流动人口嵌入城市就业结构的结果,产业结构、城镇人口规模等因素主要影响城市就业结构,而就业竞争及流动人口人力资本水平等因素则影响流动人口嵌入城市就业结构的过程,两方面因素共同影响流动人口就业行业选择。研究结果能够深化对流动人口就业选择机理的认知,特别是流动人口就业选择与城市产业发展的关系,可为流动人口就业政策的制定提供参考和支撑。

Understanding the employment preferences of the floating population is crucial for formulating relevant employment policies.In this study,based on the China dynamic monitoring survey data for the floating population in 2017,we categorized the employment options into traditional secondary industry,high-tech manufacturing industry,traditional service industry,and modern service industry,and then scrutinized the floating population's employment choices and spatial variations at the prefecture level.We also established a mixed-effects multinomial logistic regression model to investigate individual and regional factors of the employment choice of the floating population.The main findings of the study are as follows:1)The majority of the floating population have engaged in employment in the traditional service and traditional secondary industry,with only a small fraction opting for high-tech manufacturing and modern service employment.2)The percentages of the floating population engaged in employment in the traditional secondary industry and hightech manufacturing industry were significantly higher in the eastern region than in other regions,particularly in the Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta,and Shandong Peninsula.3)Most city units in the central-west and Northeast regions had a high concentration of floating population employment in the traditional service industry,with some city units showing relatively high employment percentages in the modern service industry.4)The floating population's employment choices were influenced by both regional and individual factors.Specifically,regional industrial structure and urban population size affected the regional employment structure,while employment competition and human capital levels of the floating population affected their integration into the regional employment structure.Moreover,gender,age,and population registration status of the floating population also affected their employment choice.The research findings can deepen the understanding of the mechanisms behind the employment choice of the floating population in Chinese cities,especially the relationship between the employment choice of the floating population and urban industrial development,providing references and support for the formulation of employment policies on the floating population.