灾害损失可控性、受灾经历与农户极端气候响应

Controllability of Disaster Loss,Disaster Experiences and Farmer’s Response to Extreme Climate

极端气候对农业生产与食物安全构成威胁,在极端气候增多的背景下理解农户对极端气候的响应行为与方式,有助于公共政策有效应对极端气候的冲击。本文构建了一个成本收益分析框架用以解释农户响应行为规律,特别是极端气候属性和农户在极端气候下的受灾经历对其响应行为和措施选择的影响和作用机制,并用吉林、江苏和四川3省份农户微观调研数据进行实证分析。研究表明,农户对极端气候是否响应及措施选择与灾害损失可控性和农户受灾经历特点密切相关。因旱灾损失可控性高,农户对旱灾响应率高,而水灾和风灾等灾害损失可控性低,针对此类极端气候的应对必须公共政策介入。受灾经历对农户极端气候响应的影响效应存在心理阈值,即只有当受灾程度和灾害频率高到一定程度后,农户才会给予响应。就旱灾响应措施而言,农户有严重旱灾经历会明显提升其选择抗旱品种和改善灌溉技术概率,而有频繁受灾经历会明显提升其投资灌溉设施的概率。

Extreme climate poses a threat to agricultural production and food security,under the background of the increase of extreme climate,understanding the response behaviors and methods of farmers to extreme climate will help public policies effectively deal with the impact of extreme climate.This paper constructs a cost-benefit analysis framework to explain the law of farmers' response behavior,especially the impact and mechanism of extreme climate attributes and farmers' extreme climate disaster experiences on their response behavior and measure selection,and makes an empirical analysis with the micro survey data of farmers in Jilin,Jiangsu and Sichuan provinces.The research shows that whether farmers respond to extreme climate and their choice of measures are closely related to the controllability of disaster loss and the characteristics of farmers' disaster experiences.Due to the high controllability of drought loss,farmers' response rate to drought is high,while the controllability of disaster loss such as flood and wind is low.The response to such extreme climate must be intervened by public policies.There is a psychological threshold for the impact of disaster experiences on farmers' response to extreme climate,that is,farmers will respond only when the disaster degree and disaster frequency are high to a certain extent.In terms of drought response measures,farmers with severe drought experiences will significantly improve their probability of selecting drought resistant varieties and improving irrigation technology,while frequent disaster experiences will significantly improve their probability of investing in irrigation facilities.