全球金融周期、跨境资本流动与汇率制度选择

Global Financial Cycle,Cross-border Capital Flow and Exchange Rate Regime Choice

各国金融状况相关性和联动性的逐步增强导致全球金融周期现象的出现,“三元悖论”和“二元悖论”相互取代对政策选择提出诸多挑战。危机期间美国货币政策紧缩、风险因素上行对资产价格、信贷增长、跨境资本流动的冲击作用明显增强,仅靠浮动汇率制度已无法隔绝外部冲击,需要利用资本流动管理降低金融连接强度,“二元悖论”成立;非危机期间金融市场波动性下降,浮动汇率制度的“自动稳定器”作用明显提升,“三元悖论”成立。为防范外部冲击、提升本国货币政策独立性,需有效运用宏观审慎政策和杠杆率限制降低金融市场的顺周期性,危机期间使用资本管制政策限制资本流动,通过建立风险水平的监测体系,选择适宜的时间窗口推进汇率市场化改革,实现汇率的自由浮动。

The significantly strengthened financial connection is an essential aspect of the global financial cycle.It gives rise to the mutual replacement between trilemma and dilemma that depends on global scenarios and brings multiple challenges to policy.During crises,the US monetary policy tightening,and the resulting spillover risks impose greater shock on asset price,credit growth and cross-border capital flow.Dilemma dominates trilemma,hence floating exchange rate regime alone cannot isolate external shock.To reduce financial connection,capital flow management becomes necessary.During non-crises periods,the fluctuation in financial market declines,the automatic stabilizer function of floating exchange rate regime recovers,and therefore the trilemma takes dominance.From policy perspective,to counter external shock and enhance the independence of monetary policy,it is critical to reduce the pro-cyclicality in domestic financial market.This target can be achieved by effectively using macro-prudential policy and leverage limit,and additional capital control policy during crises.The exchange rate marketization reform that accomplishes free floating,which requires an appropriate time window and complete global risk surveillance system,is also important.