联合国维和部队派遣国构成与平民保护——基于非洲维和特派团的微观数据分析

Compositions of UN Peacekeeping Troop Contributing Countries and Civilian Protection:Micro-Level Evidence from Peacekeeping Missions in Africa

近年来,关于联合国维和行动对平民保护影响的研究不断增多。然而,对于为何一些维和行动能够产生显著的积极效果,而另一些维和行动却明显失效,学界存在较大的争论。不同于既有研究关注宏观层次上的解释,作者尝试从微观视角探究维和部队派遣国构成对地方一级平民保护的影响。尽管有效的维和行动需要维持一定的部队规模和多样性的国家参与,但是部队派遣国数量的增加同时提高了集体行动困境的风险以及协调成本,从而削弱了维和行动保护平民的效果。作者通过联合国非洲维和特派团部署的空间地理数据,在微观地理网格(0.5*0.5经纬度)和月度层次实证检验了上述理论。统计分析结果发现,地理网格层次上维和部队派遣国数量增多显著增加了当地平民死亡人数和暴力冲突次数,这一消极影响在考虑了内生性等问题后依然显著。研究结果表明,有效提升联合国维和行动保护平民的效果需要更加重视地方层面维和部队派遣国构成的优化,在微观层次上注重当地不同行为体的互动对平民保护的影响。

There is a growing body of scholarship on the effectiveness of UN Peacekeeping in protecting civilians in recent years.However,existing studies are still debating why some peacekeeping operations are effective while others are not.In contrast to the macro-level explanations,this paper examines how the compositions of troop contributing countries(TCCs)affect peacekeeping effectiveness in protecting civilians at the micro level.While sizeable troops and diverse TCCs are critical for successful peacekeeping missions,they also increase the risks of collective action problems and coordination costs,which may in turn surprisingly undermine the effectiveness of peacekeeping missions.We test these arguments with monthly data on UN peacekeeping missions deployment(with a spatial resolution of 0.5*0.5 decimal degrees)in African countries from 1999-2013.The statistical results indicate that the number of TCCs at the grid level is positively associated with civilian deaths and political violence.This effect is robust and consistent even after accounting for the endogeneity concerns.Our findings demonstrate that effective peacekeeping operations need to optimize the composition of TCCs and consider the interactions between governments and non-state actors at the local level.