目标分歧、体系环境与盟国的战略自主性追求

Goal Discrepancy,International System Environment and the Emergence of Strategic Autonomy in an Asymmetric Alliance

战略自主性是指在不对称同盟中盟国能够违背主导国的意愿,甚至抵抗其施压,在涉及国家重大利益的问题上自主做出战略选择。冷战时期,在东西方阵营中都曾出现过一些相对弱势的盟国顶住主导国压力追求战略自主性的现象。与同盟主导国目标分歧的兼容性和体系环境的变化是影响一国将战略自主性从偏好转化为行为的两个核心变量。当目标分歧属于不可兼容型时,为防止遭受损失,盟国倾向于承担风险,其追求战略自主性的可能性较高;当目标分歧属于可兼容型时,为获取更多利益,盟国倾向于规避风险,其追求战略自主性的可能性较低。但当体系环境发生变化时,盟国为了抓住机会窗口,可能宁愿承担较高风险也要谋求战略自主性。通过比较冷战时期的美法关系和苏波关系,可以检验盟国的战略自主性从偏好到行为的转化条件及机制。上述发现不仅有助于利用美国盟国的战略自主性选择以牵制和分化美国同盟体系,也为中国管理全球伙伴关系网络带来了启示。

Strategic autonomy means the ability of an ally in an asymmetric alliance to go against the wishes of the dominant power,or even resist its pressure,and make its own strategic choices on issues of vital national interest.During the Cold War,the relatively weak alliance members in the Eastern camps and Western camps have resisted the pressure of dominant powers to pursue their strategic autonomy.Goal discrepancy and international system environment can cause an ally to transform strategic autonomy from preference to action.When the goal discrepancies are incompatible,allies tend to take risks to prevent losses and have a high probability of pursuing strategic autonomy.When the goal discrepancies are compatible,allies tend to avoid risks to gain more benefits and have a low probability of pursuing strategic autonomy.But when the systemic environment changes,to seize the window of opportunity,the state prefers to suffer higher risks to seeks strategic autonomy.By comparing the US-French relations and Soviet-Polish relations during the Cold War,this paper examined the conditions and mechanisms for the transformation of allies'strategic autonomy.These findings not only help China encourage and exploit the strategic autonomy of US allies'choices to check and divide the US alliance system,but also shed light on how China can better manage its global partnership network.