市场激励型环境规制与能源消费结构转型——来自中国碳排放权交易试点的经验证据

Market-Incentive Environmental Regulation and Energy Consumption Structure Transformation

能源消费结构转型是经济社会绿色低碳发展的重要抓手,以碳排放权交易为代表的市场激励型环境规制在转型进程中发挥着重要作用。本文基于中国2013年设立的碳排放权交易试点为准自然实验,匹配省级宏观数据库和上市公司微观数据库,运用双重差分、合成双重差分等方法,实证检验了碳排放权交易试点对能源消费结构转型的影响。研究发现,碳排放权交易试点加速了能源消费结构双重替代进程,指数值提升5.3%,有效助推实现碳排放总量和强度的“双控”目标。政策效应的发挥,得益于企业绿色创新效应、产业结构升级效应、绿色金融深化效应和公众行为驱动效应,但也受到地方政府环境治理重视程度和地区产业结构特征、可再生能源丰裕度的影响。进一步研究发现,碳排放权交易试点还产生了其他环境红利,且并未造成明显的社会福利损失。本文为政府利用市场机制推动能源消费结构转型,进而如期实现“双碳”目标提供更多理论支撑和经验证据。

Greenhouse gas emissions from human use of fossil energy are the main cause of global warming.China's fossil energy consumption is dominant,and there is an urgent need to adjust the energy consumption structure and promote a green and low-carbon transition.In the process of China's shift from“double control”of energy consumption in terms of energy intensity and total volume to“double control”of carbon emissions in terms of total volume and intensity,market-based environmental regulation,represented by carbon emissions trading,plays an important role.Carbon emissions trading is a marketbased incentive mechanism for carbon emissions reduction based on carbon pricing.Through the initial allocation of total carbon emissions and carbon emission rights,it provides incentives for corporate entities with lower emission reduction costs to undertake more emission reduction tasks and gain revenue,while constraining corporate entities with higher emission reduction costs to purchase allowances and complete emission reduction tasks.Although carbon trading works directly on emission control enterprises,it has many impacts on the industrial structure,resource allocation,social ethos,and public behavior of the whole region,ultimately promoting the transformation of the energy consumption structure.This study empirically examines the impact of the carbon emissions trading pilot project on the transformation of energy consumption structure based on a quasi-natural experiment established in 2013in China,matching provincial macro and micro databases of listed companies and using doubledifference and synthetic double-difference methods.The study finds that the carbon emissions trading pilot accelerated the process of dual substitution in energy consumption structure,increasing the index value by 5.3%and effectively contributing to the“double control”target of total carbon emissions and intensity.The policy effect is driven by the green innovation effect of enterprises,the upgrading effect of industrial structure,the deepening effect of green finance,and the driving effect of public behavior.However,it is also influenced by the degree of importance attached to environmental governance by local governments,the characteristics of regional industrial structures,and the abundance of renewable energy.Further research reveals that the carbon trading pilot also generated other environmental dividends and did not result in significant social welfare losses.In terms of the methodology,this study is an early application of the parallel trend sensitivity test and an innovative extension of the synthetic double-difference static estimator to a dynamic form,effectively overcoming the potential bias of double-difference reliance on untestable parallel trends while revealing the time-varying details of the policy effects.Ultimately,the study suggests that the“double carbon”target should be set;the establishment of a unified national carbon market should be accelerated;the channels of action should be further opened up;and precise policies should be implemented according to needs to provide more theoretical support for the government to use the market mechanism to promote the transformation of the energy consumption structure to achieve the“double carbon”target on schedule.The aim is to provide more theoretical support and policy options for the government to use the market mechanism to promote the transformation of the energy consumption structure to achieve the“double carbon”target on schedule.