美国对俄乌冲突的政策选择及面临的两难

The U.S.Policy Choice and Dilemma on the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

美国在俄乌冲突中对乌克兰给予了倾力支持。拜登政府对俄乌冲突的政策是:战争最终要用外交方式来解决;美国不会要求乌克兰在最终的和平进程中做出领土让步;美国不会直接参战;美国对乌克兰的军事援助是为了帮助其自卫,并使其在谈判桌上处于有利地位。美国向乌克兰提供了大量军事援助、财政预算支持、人道主义援助,并增加了对欧洲的能源援助,同盟国和合作伙伴一起对俄罗斯实施了有史以来对一个世界主要经济体规模最大的制裁和出口管制,并在多边机构中共同采取打击和孤立俄罗斯的行动。俄乌冲突造成的后果已显露端倪:欧洲在安全上更加依赖美国;核武器威胁形成对西方的威慑;能源供应链发生深刻变化;粮食供应链中断导致全球粮食供应紧张;俄罗斯因战争消耗而国力下降。美国对乌克兰的全力支持能持续多久?这一问题已成为美国国内日益引人注目的争论问题。诸多因素,特别是美国和北约与乌克兰战争目标的差异,令美国面临政策选择的两难,而美国国内战略家不断提醒拜登政府:战争的长期化最终可能妨碍美国阻止“新的欧亚霸权崛起”的努力,干扰美国把印太地区作为战略重点的全球战略。

The United States has made its best effort to support Ukraine in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.President Biden announced that his administration's policy on the Russia-Ukraine war is that the conflict will ultimately be resolved diplomatically;that the U.S will not go directly to war,and that in any case it will not force territorial concessions on Ukraine in an eventual peace process;and that the U.S.military aid to Ukraine is meant to help its self-defense and give it an advantageous position at the negotiating table.The United States has provided Ukraine with substantial military assistance,financial support,humanitarian assistance,and at the same time,increased energy assistance to Europe.U.S.allies and partners have worked together to impose the largest sanctions and export restrictions against Russia ever imposed on a major world economy,and to work together in multilateral institutions to target and isolate Russia.The consequences of the Russia-Ukraine conflict have been visible.Europe has become more dependent on the U.S.for security;the threat of nuclear weapons forms a deterrent to the West;profound changes have occurred in the energy-supply chain;disruptions in food-supply chains have strained global food supplies;and Russia's national power has been weakened by war attrition.How long will full U.S.support for Ukraine last?The question has become a more prevalent topic of debate in the U.S.Many factors,especially the difference between the United States/NATO and Ukraine on the objectives of the Ukraine war,create for the United States a policy choice dilemma.American strategic analysts constantly remind the Biden administration that a prolonged war may eventually hamper the efforts of the United States to prevent the“rise of a new Eurasian hegemony"and interfere with its global strategy,which takes the Indo-Pacific region as its strategic priority.