美国对台政策的模糊与清晰

Ambiguity and Clarity of the U.S.Taiwan Policy

本文建立了一个政治—安全以及宣示性政策—操作性政策两个维度的分析框架,希望可以借此更为细致地梳理分析美国对台政策。在特朗普和拜登政府时期,美国的对台政策在政治层面的宣示性政策、政治层面的操作性政策、安全层面的宣示性政策、安全层面的操作性政策四个方面都有明显的调整。相对而言,两届政府的操作性政策调整的程度要大于宣示性政策。仅就宣示性政策而言,特朗普政府在政治层面的宣示性政策的动作较多,而拜登政府(尤其是拜登总统本人)在安全层面的宣示性动作更明显。美国对台政策调整的最主要原因,一是其认为中国内地对中国台湾地区使用武力的能力和意图都在上升,二是美国对台湾地区的战略思维正在悄然发生变化。美国对台政策的调整为推进祖国统一制造了障碍,但是决定两岸关系走向、实现祖国完全统一的最关键因素是国家的发展进步。

This article establishes an analytical framework to better understand the U.S.Taiwan policy along two dimensions:politico-security and declaratory-operational.During the Trump and Biden administration,all four areas regarding the Taiwan question:the politico-declaratory policy,the politico-operational policy,the security-declaratory policy,and the security-operational policy,have undergone some adjustments.Relatively speaking,the degree of adjustments is greater in the realm of operational policy than in declaratory policy.In terms of declaratory policy,the Trump administration has made more provocative moves on the political dimension,while the Biden administration(particularly President Biden himself)has pushed the envelope on the security dimension.There are two major reasons for these policy adjustments.One is that the U.S.believes that China has more capability and willingness to use force across the Taiwan Strait,and the other is that the U.S.strategic thinking about Taiwan has subtly changed to the extent that the latter is increasingly perceived as a strategic asset.Although these developments have posed challenges to the cause of reunification,the most critical factor in determining the prospect of cross-strait relations and of China's reunification is China's own continual development and progress.