中印美在南亚地区能源基建中的竞合关系——发展与安全联结视角

China-India-U.S.Competition and Cooperation in Energy Infrastructure in South Asia:The Development-Security Nexus

近十年来中印美均加大参与南亚能源基础设施建设的力度,三方关涉该议题的竞合互动也明显增加。目前,三方竞合关系正经历由“弱关系”向“强关系”转向,但依然具有不对称性,并未形成标准的三角关系结构。本文基于“发展—安全联结”视角,认为发展化逻辑与安全化逻辑的双重逻辑共同支配让三方竞合进入一种“发展—基建—安全”联结的复杂网络,而在此进程中三方竞合不仅受到南亚能源基建供需走势等市场因素影响,还更多受到中印美在国际和地区层面的战略互动态势等因素影响。除市场手段外,安全化操作已成为影响三方竞合互动的重要手段。从现阶段看,安全化操作的结果导致中印、中美之间的竞争凸显,甚至出现了印美强化合作制衡中国的态势。从短期来看,这种安全化操作带来的竞争给地区能源基建引来更多的资源投入,也给南亚中小国家更多选择。从长远来看,过多的安全化操作并不利于地区发展,有可能引发相关安全困境升级。

Over the past decade,China,India,and the United States have all increased their involvement in energy infrastructure development in South Asia,with tripartite co-competition between them becoming much more pronounced.At present,while both competition and cooperation are increasing within the relations between the three parties,the relationships remain asymmetric,and the contours of the tripartite relationship have yet to take on a structured form.This article considers the development-security nexus,arguing that the dual logics of development and security,both of which feature in the relationships,have resulted in the emergence of highly complex dynamics vis-a-vis infrastructure development.In this process,tripartite competition and cooperation are not only influenced by market factors such as the supply and demand of energy infrastructure in South Asia,but also by strategic interactions between China,India,and the United States at both the international and regional levels.In addition to market-based strategies,security strategies have also become an important means of influencing tripartite dynamics.At present,securization dynamics have led to intensified competition between China and India,and between China and the United States,even resulting in a trend towards India and the U.S.strengthening cooperation to counter China.Over the short term,this security-driven competition has brought more resources into the development of regional energy infrastructure and provided small-andmedium-sized South Asian countries with more choices.However,over the long term,too much emphasis on security may not be conducive to regional development and may even lead to the rise of greater security challenges.