RCEP框架下服务贸易自由化的贸易与福利效应估计

Trade and Welfare Effects of Liberalisation of Trade in Services under the RCEP

本文通过对接RCEP各成员的服务贸易自由化承诺细则与服务贸易限制指数评估框架,以及加权平均各成员的货物贸易关税减免率,量化了成员间的服务与货物贸易自由化程度,并以此在一个包含投入-产出关联的多国多行业一般均衡模型中,采用结构模型方法估计了RCEP带来的贸易与福利效应。研究结果表明,当同时考虑货物与服务贸易自由化时,RCEP的生效将提高所有成员的实际工资水平以及大部分成员的福利效应水平,生效首年中国的实际工资和福利效应分别上升0.63%和0.02%。此外,中国的贸易结构更趋服务化,价格指数与生产成本相对下降。服务贸易自由化将整体带来实际工资与福利效应的更大增进,成员间贸易关联的再度加强以及中国价格指数与生产成本的进一步下降。本研究结果从投入-产出关联的角度多方面验证了服务贸易自由化带来的贸易与福利效应。

Trade in services is an important field in relation to China's international trade and economic cooperation.Compared to the rapid growth of the domestic services sector,China's services trade development remains relatively inadequate,and its structure is certainly unbalanced.The signing and entry into force of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)agreement provides an effective framework for progress and an international layout from a perspective aimed at deepening foreign cooperation in trade in services.By connecting RCEP members'detailed commitment rules and regulations on liberalisation of trade in services,together with the assessment framework of the services trade restrictiveness index and the weighted average tariff reduction rate of each member's trade in goods,this paper quantifies the degree of liberalisation of trade in services and goods among member countries in order to estimate the trade and welfare effects brought about by RCEP using the structural model method in a multi-country multi-sector general equilibrium model that includes input-output linkages.The results of the study indicate that by considering the liberalisation of trade in goods and services at the same time,the entry into force of RCEP improves real wages in all member countries as well as the welfare effects in most.During the first year of implementation,China's real wages and welfare effects increased by 0.63%and 0.02%respectively.China's trade structure is also more service-oriented,with the price index and production costs declining relatively.A comparison of the results obtained by considering and ruling out the liberalisation of trade in services reveals that the fact of considering it leads to a greater improvement in real wages and welfare effects,a re-strengthening of trade linkages among member countries and a further decline in China's price index and production costs.The findings of this paper reflect the trade and welfare effects of services trade liberalisation from the perspective of input-output linkages in multiple respects.