全球价值链视角下台湾地区经济融入内地的测度分析

The Measurement and Analysis of Taiwan’s region Economic Integration into the Mainland:from the Perspective of Global Value Chain

尽管受到中国台湾民进党当局的干扰阻挡,两岸经贸仍然快速发展,尤其是2020年以来中国台湾出口内地连续3年超过2000亿美元。本文运用全球价值链方法,分析2008一2021年中国台湾出口内地的增加值和参与全球价值链情况,研究发现:(1)2021年中国台湾对内地出口中60.9%是中国台湾的增加值,其中的45.91%被内地市场所吸收,从而带动10.81%的中国台湾经济融入内地,另有14.99%的出口在内地加工后再次出口到第三地,进入全球价值链,也就是“三角贸易”部分;(2)从2008一2021年的发展趋势看,中国台湾经济融入内地的比例不断增加,尤其是中国台湾产业链融入内地发展迅速,但是两岸产业合作链接全球价值链的部分在减弱,尤其是外部增加值通过中国台湾进入内地的部分下降明显;(3)内地经济内循环发展驱动了中国台湾经济融入内地,随着经济内循环发展,中国台湾经济融入内地的部分将进一步加强。

Despite the interference and obstruction of China Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party,the cross-Strait economic and trade cooperation still develops rapidly.In particular,China Taiwan's exports to the outback have exceeded US$200 billion for three consecutive years since 2020.Using the global value chain method,this paper analyzes the added value of China Taiwan's exports to the outback and its participation in the global value chain from 2008 to 2021,and find that:(1)in 2021,60.9%of China Taiwan's exports to the outback were China Taiwan's added value,of which 45.91%were absorbed by the outback market,which drove 10.81%of China Taiwan's economy to integrate into the outback ,and another 14.99%were re-exported to a third place after processing,that is the"triangular trade"part;(2)From the development trend from 2008 to 2021,the proportion of China Taiwan's economy integrated into the outback is increasing,especially the rapid development of China Taiwan's industrial chain integrated into the outback ,but the part of cross-Strait industrial cooperation linking the global value chain is weakening,especially the part of external added value entering the outback through Taiwan has decreased significantly;(3)The internal circulation development of the outback economy has driven China Taiwan's economy to integrate into the outback .With the development of the internal economic cycle,China Taiwan's economy will be further integrated into the outback .